The monthly GDP proxy increased 3.5% YoY in August (down from 4.5% in July), in line with market consensus but above our 3% call. The headline figure was led by mining output (8.9% YoY in August, from 3.1% in July). The agricultural sector and fishing contracted 2.3% YoY and 27.8% respectively (-4% and –14.9% in July). Manufacturing and construction lost momentum, expanding 2.2% YoY (from 10.9% in July) and 4.1% in August (from 7.1% in July), respectively. Commerce also moderated in August, expanding 2.9% YoY in August (from 3.4% in July). On the other hand, Hotel and restaurants and Transport remain dynamic, growing 7.5% YoY and 6.4% (from 5.4% and 7.3% respectively). Overall, monthly GDP momentum remained positive, with the 3Q24 annual rate at 4% (from 3.6% in 2Q24 and 1.4% in 1Q24).
Using unofficial seasonally adjusted series, the monthly GDP fell by 0.5% MoM/SA in August (after growth of 2.3 MoM/SA in July), which led to a statistical carryover of 2.3%. We expect the Central Bank of Peru to publish the official series in the coming days.
Our Take: We expect economic activity to improve further this year. Positive terms of trade, the improvement in business confidence and dynamic imports of capital goods (+ 8.9% in the rolling quarter ending in August) suggest the economic recovery remains well on track. However, the strikes that have taken place in October are a transitory headwind for activity. We estimate that each day of protest has an impact of roughly 0.1% of monthly GDP. We expect 2024 GDP growth at 3.1% in line with market consensus and the BCRP’s recent inflation report.
Andrés Pérez M.
Vittorio Peretti
Andrea Tellechea