The monthly GDP (IGAE) increased 3.7% yoy in August, above market consensus of 3.4% (as per Bloomberg) and our forecast of 2.7%. The calendar adjusted quarterly annual rate of IGAE rose to 3.7% in August (practically unchanged from 2Q23). At the margin, monthly GDP rose sequentially by 0.4% mom/sa mainly driven by construction (2.4%), while services sector grew at a decent pace (0.3%). In contrast, manufacturing weakened in August, falling by 0.7% mom/sa. Momentum in monthly GDP improved in August, with the qoq/saar at 4.5% (from 4.0% in 2Q23) supported by construction and services. The qoq/saar of manufacturing output stood at a soft 0.6% in August (from 0.9% in 2Q23).
Our take: Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 3.0% has an upward bias given better than expected activity data. Resilient economic activity is likely generating demand side inflationary pressures (included as an upside risk to inflation in the most recent monetary policy statement), increasing the odds of the central bank delaying the first rate cut further than 1Q24.
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Julio Ruiz