According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 1.5% MoM in May, down from 2.8% MoM in April. The print was well below the central ban's survey median of 2.1% MoM. Thus, May's figure was the lowest since May 2020, during the pandemic, and since 4Q17, excluding that period. On an annual basis, inflation declined to 43.5%, from 47.3% in April, also supported by an annual base effect. Annualized quarterly inflation in May fell to 37.5%, down from 42.2% in the previous month.
The monthly core measure rose by 2.2% MoM in May, down from 3.2% in the previous month. Moreover, the annual core reading fell to 44.7%, down from 46.9% in April. Prices for regulated products increased by 1.3% MoM and 53.4% YoY. Finally, prices for seasonal products fell by 2.7% MoM due to lower fruits and vegetable prices, with the annual reading falling to 21.1% in April, from 33.5% in the previous month.
Our take: We foresee downside risks to our 30.0% inflation forecast for YE25. The INDEC will release CPI for the month of June on July 14.