The trade balance in October surprised with a surplus of USD 370.8 million, while market consensus was a deficit of USD 659.2 million (as per Bloomberg). On a 12-month rolling basis, the trade deficit reached USD 5.8 billion in October (from a deficit of USD 6.6 billion in September and a deficit of USD 5.5 billion in 2023). At the margin, using three-month annualized seasonally adjusted figures, the trade balance stood at a deficit of USD 7.1 billion in October. Looking at the breakdown, the non-oil trade balance continued to improve at the margin (USD 3.9 billion surplus on a 12-month rolling basis).
Our view: The trade balance once again surprised to the upside, signaling a slightly better result than our USD 10 billion deficit forecasted for YE24. A weaker currency will continue to bring some support to manufacturing exports during the next months, although curbed by a slowdown of the U.S. economy. Weaker internal demand should curb non-energy consumption and capital imports. Institutional uncertainties and tariffs threats will also impact trade flows ahead.
See detailed data below
