According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.7% MoM in October, down from 3.5% MoM in the previous month, the lowest since November 2021. The print was below our forecast (2.8% MoM) and market expectations, according to the latest central bank’s survey (3.0% MoM). Annualized quarterly inflation in October fell to 50.1% during the quarter ended in that month, down from 57.8% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation declined to 193.0%, from 209.0% in September.
The monthly core measure increased by 2.9% mom in October, marking a deceleration from the previous month (3.3% MoM). Moreover, the year-over-year reading fell to 182.0%, from 198.1% in September. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.7% MoM and 279.5% YoY, led by higher energy tariffs and fuels. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 1.4% MoM and 152.1% YoY.
Our take: We expect lower inflation in 2024 and 2025. We now foresee inflation at 120% by YE24, down from 125% in our previous scenario. For YE25 we envisage inflation at 35%, down from 45% before. INDEC will publish the November CPI on December 11.