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Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks.
2024/02/14 | Andrés Pérez M. & Diego Ciongo



Consumer prices rose by 20.6% MoM in January (from 25.5% in December), below market expectations of 21.9%, according to the central bank survey. Annualized quarterly inflation accelerated to 746.7% during the quarter ended in January, from 450.6% in December. The 12-month inflation reading rose to 254.2%, from 211.4% in December.

The monthly core measure also decelerated in January. The core index came in at 20.2% MoM (from 28.3% in the previous month), bringing the year-over-year reading to 275.9% in January 2024, from 229.4% in December. Prices for regulated products increased by 26.6% MoM and 213.1% YoY, led by increases in fuel and transportation prices. Finally, prices for seasonal products increased by 16.2% MoM (unchanged from December) and 200.4% YoY.
 


We expect monthly inflation to remain in the double digits until at least the beginning of 2Q24, reflecting pass-through effects of the currency devaluation and the correction of the prices for energy, transportation and fuel, among others. Our inflation forecast for year-end 2024 stands at 180%, with upside risks.