Industrial production (IP) grew 3.9% YoY in September, above our 3.4% forecast, but below market expectations of 4.3% (as per Bloomberg). The calendar adjusted quarterly annual rate of industrial production rose to 4.5% in 3Q23 (from 3.9% in 2Q23). At the margin, IP expanded 0.2% mom/sa in September, this time driven by manufacturing (1.7%), while construction fell (4.1%), to a certain extent, breaking the positive support provided by construction in recent quarters. The sequential decline of construction in September suggests the boost to the sector from the culmination of AMLO’s large infrastructure projects may be finally fading. Industrial production qoq/saar stood at 5.7% in 3Q23 (from 7.2% in 2Q23) supported mainly by construction (27.0% in 3Q23), while manufacturing production stood at 1.8%.
Our take: Our GDP growth forecast stands at 3.4% for 2024. We expect sequential GDP growth to expand in the last quarter of the year but at slower pace than the first three quarters of 2023. Next year we expect a GDP growth of 2.0% supported, in part, by an expansionary fiscal stance.
See detailed data below
