Latam | Economic Analysis

COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in October

Services inflation remains elevated.

MEXICO – October inflation was broadly in line

Persistent services CPI likely to reinforce Banxico’s cautious tone on the disinflation outlook.

CHILE – Core consumer prices stable in October

Weak core inflationary pressures at the margin.

CHILE – Domestic demand supports another surplus

Contractionary monetary policy supporting BoP adjustment.

MEXICO – Internal demand indicators expanded

Gross fixed investment posted a strong expansion.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Inflation forecast revised higher.

CHILE – A mining-led expansion in September

Activity should gradually recover sequentially in the coming months.

CHILE – Public Finance

Cumulative fiscal deficit widens.

PERU – Another large downside in October’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Easing likely to be pushed forward.

COLOMBIA – Labor market remain strong in 3Q23

The unemployment rate has continued to trend down.

CHILE – Sectorial surprised to the upside

We believe activity likely bottomed out.

CHILE – Better than expected labor data in Sep.

Labor market slack to increase.

MEXICO – Smaller fiscal deficits in 3Q23

Lower primary expenditures more than offset weaker revenues.

CHILE – October Monetary Policy Meeting preview

We expect a 75bps cut for October Monetary Policy Meeting.

ARGENTINA – Better-than-expected activity

Even though activity surprised to the upside in August, we still expect GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2023.

MEXICO – Headline CPI surprised to the downside

Lower volatile agricultural prices were the main downside pressure.

MEXICO – Activity momentum improved in August

Services and construction supported activity in the month.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in August

Imports fell again sequentially as domestic demand adjusts

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We see downside risks to our trade deficit forecast of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Retail sales softened in August

Real wage bill to continue supporting private consumption.

PERU – Weak activity momentum in August

Activity should gradually improve during the rest of the year.

COLOMBIA – Activity dynamics weakened in August

Contractionary monetary policy and elevated inflation help cool activity

ARGENTINA – Inflation posts a record in September

We maintain our inflation forecast at 200% by year end, and a monetary policy rate at 145%.

MEXICO – MP meeting minutes with a hawkish bias

Higher odds of delaying the first rate cut.

MEXICO – Resilient industrial production in August

Construction expanded at a strong pace while manufacturing weakened

CHILE – Weak imports lead to trade surplus

CAD correction to continue.

COLOMBIA – Gradual disinflation process continued

Annual core inflation fell to one-digit.

MEXICO – Persistent services inflation

Banxico unlikely to start its easing cycle this year.

CHILE – An upside CPI surprise, led by volatiles

Core inflationary pressures are weakening at the margin.

PERU – Monetary policy: easing cycle continues

Our end-of-year policy rate forecast stands at 6.75%.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in July

Gross Fixed Investment is driven by construction investment.

PERU – A downside surprise in September’s CPI

The BCRP will likely continue easing its policy rate.

CHILE – Widening of the fiscal deficit

Second consecutive real expenditure contraction.

CHILE – large negative IMACEC surprise in August

A gradual sequential improvement toward yearend is our base case.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

We view the October meeting as a 50-50 call for the beginning of an easing cycle with a 25-bp cut.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate continues to fall

Labor marklet loosening expected ahead.

CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics in August

We believe the activity cycle is bottoming out in 3Q23.

CHILE – Unemployment rate continues to rise

Weakening of the labor market is consolidating.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The Board expects a more gradual decline in inflation.

MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in August

Manufacturing exports deteriorated, dragged by vehicle sales.

ARGENTINA –Activity rebounded sequentially in July

Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -3.0%, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals

MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside

We expect the economy to gradually slow during the rest of the year

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit improved temporarily

We forecast a primary deficit of 3.0% of GDP for this year, above the 1.9% deficit targeted for 2023 in the agreement with the IMF.

MEXICO – CPI broadly in line with consensus

Our 2023 yearend inflation forecast stands at 4.5%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Board is likely to be more sensitive to asset prices (rates, FX) in the next decisions.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further

We expect a trade deficit of USD 2.0 billion for this year.

MEXICO – Positive momentum in July’s retail sales

The real wage bill, main determinant of private consumption, continued to grow at a solid pace.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in July

Imports contracted as the domestic demand weakens.

ARGENTINA – Severe drought dragged activity in 2Q

We maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at -3.0%.

MEXICO – Resilient domestic demand expansion in 2Q

Domestic demand was mainly supported by gross fixed investment.

COLOMBIA – Weaker-than-expected activity in July

Activity indicators continue to lose momentum.

PERU – Activity deteriorated in July

The El Niño phenomenon likely to weigh on activity in 2H23.

PERU – Monetary policy: a hawkish start

BCRP: the decision does not necessarily imply further consecutive rate cuts

ARGENTINA – CB maintained the policy rate at 118%

Our monetary policy rate (Leliq) forecast stands at 145% for year-end.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply

The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly following the devaluation of the currency after the primary election.

MEXICO – 2024 fiscal budget: Higher fiscal deficit

2024 fiscal deficit revised up on higher spending and lower revenue.

MEXICO – Industrial production expanded further

Construction remains the main driver of industrial production.

COLOMBIA – Another large upside inflation surprise

Core inflation pressures are moderating.

CHILE – Widespread downside inflation surprise

We expect some payback in coming months along with increased pass-through pressures.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

Risks to the scenario stem mostly from the global macro-financial situation.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

We are penciling in cuts of 75bps for the remaining meetings of the year (to 8%).

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows further

FDI financing of CAD continues to improve.

PERU – Upside CPI surprise in August

We still expect the central bank to begin an easing cycle this month.

CHILE – Strong non-mining activity in July

We foresee a further improvement in activity towards yearend.

COLOMBIA – Employment growth remains strong

Employment prospects remain upbeat.

CHILE – Activity dynamics remain weak in July

We expect activity to remain weak in the short term.

CHILE – Fiscal deficit deepened in July

2023 financing needs likely to increase.

MEXICO – 2Q23 Inflation Report

Odds of delaying rate cuts are increasing.

CHILE – Unemployment in July quarter

We expect a gradual loosening ahead.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in July

Strength in manufacturing exports likely to fade amid softer external demand.

MEXICO – Current account deficit narrowed in 2Q23

Narrower energy goods trade deficit supported the improvement.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Odds increase of a delay in the beginning of the easing cycle.

MEXICO – 1H August CPI

Core services inflation still without a clear downward trend.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in 2Q23

We maintain our GDP growth forecast at -3.0% for 2023.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened further in July

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the 1.9% target agreed with the IMF for 2023.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in line

We see downside risk to our USD 1 billion trade surplus forecast for this year.

CHILE – A smaller-than-expected GDP fall in 2Q23

Private Consumption has adjusted.

CHILE – Current account deficit narrows further

FDI dynamics support a more sustainable financing mix.

MEXICO – Upside surprise in June’s retail sales

The real wage bill is supporting private consumption.

COLOMBIA – The economy fell sequentially in 2Q23

The import and investment contractions reflect weaker domestic demand.

ARGENTINA – Further deterioration in inflation

The inflationary outlook has deteriorated significantly, and will likely exceed our inflation forecast of 160% by December.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in 2Q23

Double-digit declines in imports persist.

PERU – Soft activity momentum in 2Q23

Harsh weather conditions and social conflicts curbed GDP in 1H23.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 2Q23

Softening domestic demand supports lower rates ahead.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Swifter CLP appreciation pass-through supported lower rate trajectory.

MEXICO – industrial production upside surprise

Solid construction sector growth supported industrial production.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

The Board remains cautious on the disinflationary process.

COLOMBIA – CPI above consensus in July

Sequential core inflation pressures moderated further.

MEXICO – Lower inflation in July

We expect Banxico’s policy rate to remain on hold at 11.25% this week.

CHILE – Inflation falls 1.1pp to 6.5% in July

Swift disinflation process leaves door open for another 100bp rate cut.

CHILE – A lower-than-expected, trade surplus

The domestic demand adjustment, amid contractionary monetary policy is supporting a narrowing of external imbalances.

MEXICO – Investment supported internal demand

Construction investment expanded at a strong pace.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Scenario does not consider the materialization of an “El Niño” phenomenon.

PERU – Lower inflation in July

Higher odds of BCRP cutting its policy rate before 4Q23.

CHILE – Non-mining activity falls sequentially

In the short-term, we expect activity to remain weak, with activity bottoming out in 3Q23.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

Rising risks that rate cuts unfold later this year.

COLOMBIA – Downside unemployment surprise in June

Private salaried jobs continued to drive employment dynamics.

CHILE – Mining rebound offsets core activity

Quarterly sequential activity dynamics weakened in 2Q.

CHILE – Real expenditure growth decelerated

Revenue contraction slowed materially, aided by base effects.

MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H23

A strong peso and lower oil prices are curbing fiscal revenues.

MEXICO – Another solid GDP expansion in 2Q23

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 2.7% has an upward bias.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A larger than expected cut to begin the cycle.

CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside

The job creation subsidy is likely sustaining employment resilience.

MEXICO – Sequential activity slipped in May

Our 2023 GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.

MEXICO – Bi-weekly inflation prints in line

We expect inflation to end the year at 4.5%.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 2Q23

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, below the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023 (1.9% of GDP).

MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside

Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.7%.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened further in June

We recently revised our trade balance forecast down to a surplus of USD 1.0 billion for this year, due to the worse-than-expected deterioration of the external accounts.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowed in May

Imports fall as domestic demand adjusts.

ARGENTINA – Activity fell again in May

Better-than-expected activity in 1Q23 led to the downward revision of our expectation for a contraction this year, from 4% to 3%.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in May

Activity momentum remained weak.

COLOMBIA – Activity slowdown continued in May

Activity indicators continued to lose momentum.

ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed in June

Given the high volatility, we recently lowered our year-end inflation forecast to 160%, from 175%.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised

Construction sector rebounded, while manufacturing output deteriorated.

COLOMBIA – A downside inflation surprise in June

Food prices are swiftly correcting, but El Niño risks loom.

CHILE – A larger-than-expected trade surplus

CAD correction to continue.

CHILE – Another large downside inflation surprise

Inflationary pressures at the margin are falling swiftly.

MEXICO – June CPI broadly in line

We expect rate cuts in 4Q23.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

Board members are cautious of the disinflationary process.

CHILE – Monetary Policy meeting Minutes

Expect divided decisions ahead.

MEXICO – Internal demand momentum remains positive

Machinery & equipment investment is the main driver of GFI.

CHILE – Spending accelerates and Revenues fall

Spending pressures and weak revenues will test fiscal accounts this year.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside in June

Downside pressure to the headline figure came mainly from lower food prices.

CHILE – Non-mining activity flat sequentially

Activity during 2Q23 will likely post a notable decline.

ARGENTINA – Activity declined in April

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The bar is high for rate cuts to occur this year.

COLOMBIA – Employment growth remained upbeat

Private and self-employment drive job creation.

ARGENTINA – Wide current account deficit in 1Q23

We forecast a current account deficit of 1.5% of GDP for 2023, but the risks are tilted to a wider deficit.

CHILE – Mining drags activity in May

Tight monetary policy and reduced household savings to sustain weak activity ahead.

CHILE – Unemployment surprised to the downside

The sequential improvement in the labor market is unlikely to persist.

MEXICO – Stable trade balance in May

Manufacturing exports’ positive momentum is unlikely to persist amid a softer external scenario.

MEXICO – Solid monthly GDP expansion in April

Services sector is the main driver of activity.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit was unchanged in May.

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, which is worse than the target agreed upon with the IMF for 2023.

ARGENTINA – GDP expanded in 1Q23

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and the fragile macro fundamentals.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Rate cuts are unlikely before 4Q23.

MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprised

Inflation figure is supportive of rate cuts in 4Q23.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit widened in May

We see downward risk to our trade balance forecast of a surplus of USD 3.5 billion for this year.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened in April

Imports fall as domestic demand weakens.

MEXICO – Solid domestic demand expansion in 1Q23

Private sector was the main driver of domestic demand.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

A swifter disinflation path.

MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in April

Real wage bill, main private consumption determinant, remains resilient.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut

Better inflation readings are the missing piece to trigger more decisive monetary easing.

COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the downside

Activity is contracting from last year.

COLOMBIA – A challenging fiscal consolidation path

Government’s financing needs revised up.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in April

El Niño weather phenomenon curbs activity in April.

ARGENTINA – Inflation remains high

We recently raised our inflation forecast for this year to 175% from 125%, as we now expect a meaningful official real exchange rate depreciation before the end of this year.

MEXICO – Soft industrial production momentum

Strong sequential expansion in manufacturing output in April is unlikely to last.

CHILE – A volatiles-led downside inflation surprise

Core inflation falling from high levels.

COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise

Core inflation has likely peaked.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in May

The lithium pull eases.

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in 1Q23

GFI expansion is driven by machinery & equipment investment.

COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q23

CAD financing is healthy.

PERU – Annual inflation eased slightly in May

We expect inflation at 4.0% end of this year.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

None of the board members gave a clear indication of when will Banxico assess cutting rates.

CHILE – Core activity falls sequentially in April

Commerce activity trends down.

MEXICO – 1Q23 Inflation Report

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.25%.

CHILE – Fiscal spending accelerates

Fiscal dynamics tested by sharp rise in spending and falling revenues.

COLOMBIA – Sequential employment fall in April

Unemployment rate remains low.

CHILE – Weak April activity in spite of mining

Tight monetary policy will support activity adjustment.

CHILE – Unemployment surprisingly fell in April

Unemployment rate drop expected to be transitory.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

More information needed to evaluate the inflation trend.

MEXICO – Solid GDP expansion in 1Q23

Services sector was the main driver of GDP, curbed by manufacturing output.

MEXICO – Stable 4-quarter rolling current account

Remittances are slowly cooling down.

MEXICO – Trade balance deteriorated in April

Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.

MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H May

Downside surprise was driven mainly by the non-core index and slightly by core CPI.

ARGENTINA – Activity posted a sequential increase

We forecast a 4% contraction in activity this year, reflecting the harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen

We forecast a primary deficit of 3% of GDP for this year, larger than the target agreed with the IMF for 2023.

MEXICO – Positive retail sales momentum in 1Q23

Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, expanded at a solid pace.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in April underperformed

The trade balance is deteriorating rapidly.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: pause at 11.25%

Rate cuts are unlikely this year, in our view

CHILE – GDP contracts 0.6% yoy in 1Q23

Domestic demand remains a key drag to activity.

CHILE – A current account surplus in 1Q23

The CAD narrowing is unfolding swiftly.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit remained wide in 1Q23

Weak oil exports limits speed of CAD correction.

COLOMBIA – Strong growth in 1Q23

Core activity weakening in line with end of hiking cycle.

PERU – Weak activity momentum in 1Q23

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.

ARGENTINA – The CB increased reference rate

The monetary authority hiked the 28-day Leliq rate to 97% from 91%.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

Activity and inflation have involved in line with the IPoM scenario.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerates sharply in April

We see upside risk to our 125% inflation forecast for YE23.

COLOMBIA – Activity weakened in 1Q23

High rates, weak sentiment and elevated policy uncertainty contributing to slowdown.

MEXICO – Industrial production surprised in March

Soft external demand is affecting industrial production.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April

Consumer goods imports continue to trend down.

CHILE – Indexation pressures core inflation in April

Inflation back in single-digits.

CHILE – Constitutional Council vote

There is the risk of a rejection to the proposed text in the plebiscite in December.

COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in April

Inflation has peaked, but the disinflation process will be slow.

MEXICO – Solid internal demand momentum in Feb

GFI strong expansion is supported mainly by machinery & equipment investment.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report

Output gap remains positive this year.

CHILE – Fiscal balance swings back to a deficit

Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts ahead.

CHILE – Another mining-led activity drop in March

Non-mining activity weakness will resume in 2Q23.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

We believe the tightening cycle likely ended.

COLOMBIA – Significant unemployment drop in 1Q23

Labor demand is likely to cool ahead.

CHILE – Mining-led activity weakness in March

Sequential contractions in mining would add downside risks.

CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp yoy in 1Q23

Private salary dynamics weaken.

MEXICO – Activity surprised to the upside in 1Q23

GDP expansion was driven by a strong services sector.

MEXICO – Better than expected trade balance

Still solid manufacturing exports and weak non-oil imports supported the trade surplus.

MEXICO – Soft sequential monthly GDP in February

Activity was dragged by manufacturing, construction and services sectors.

ARGENTINA – Activity remained flat in February

We forecast a 4% contraction this year, reflecting a harsh drought and fragile macro fundamentals.

MEXICO – Inflation fell further in 1H April

Odds of Banxico pausing in May increased.

ARGENTINA – Wide trade deficit in March

We recently revised our trade balance forecast to a surplus of USD 4.5 billion for this year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Core inflation is not declining and activity has not adjusted as expected.

MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February

Private consumption main determinant, the real wage bill, remains resilient.

PERU – Activity improved in February

Downside risk to activity remain amid harsh weather conditions.

ARGENTINA – Record high inflation in March

We expect another increase in the Leliq rate (currently at 78%) at the upcoming central bank meeting.

COLOMBIA – Weaker activity in February

Sequential dynamics deteriorating.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.

MEXICO – Solid Industrial production expansion

IP expansion was supported by mining, while construction and services sectors contracted.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in 1Q23

Widespread export growth recorded during the 1Q23.

CHILE – High inflation in March

Core inflation rising at the margin.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report

We now consider a more cautious cutting cycle that results in a yearend rate of 9.25% (8% previously).

MEXICO – Positive internal demand momentum in Jan

Our GDP growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%.

COLOMBIA – Unfavorable core inflation

Core pressures continue to rise at the margin.

MEXICO – Headline inflation fell

Our base case is for another 25-bp rate hike in May’s meeting.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting

A hawkish forward guidance was maintained.

MEXICO –2024 Preliminary Economic Policy Guideline

Debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to remain stable.

CHILE – Mining-led drag to activity in February

The gradual correction in economic activity is unfolding.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in March

BCRP will likely remain on hold throughout the year

CHILE – Small fiscal surplus in February

Spending pressures to test fiscal accounts this year.

COLOMBIA – Employment rose for the third month

Labor demand is likely to cool ahead due to the anticipated economic slowdown.

CHILE – Activity decline in February

Retail activity continues to fall sequentially, but at a slower rate.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, implying one additional 25-bp rate hike in May.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting

The tightening cycle likely ended or is near to its end.

CHILE – Unemployment rate ticks up in February

Public sector boosts job growth.

ARGENTINA – Soft rebound of activity in January

We forecast GDP -3.0% for 2023, with risks tilted downward due to a worse-than-expected drought in the agriculture sector.

ARGENTINA – Current account surplus in 4Q22

We forecast a current account deficit of 0.4% of GDP for 2023.

MEXICO – Better-than-expected activity in January

We recently revised upward our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 1.3% in our previous scenario.

MEXICO – Solid retail sales growth in January

A still decent GDP expansion in 1Q23 is likely

ARGENTINA – GDP decreased in 4Q22

We recently revised our GDP forecast to -3.0% for 2023, from -1.5% before.

MEXICO – Downside CPI surprise in 1H March

The downside surprise was driven by the non-core CPI

MEXICO – Domestic demand expanded at a solid pace

Domestic demand was supported by a rebound in gross fixed investment

ARGENTINA –Trade surplus on falling imports in Fev

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a severe drought

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in February

We estimate that the 12-month-rolling primary deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP from 2.3% in December 2022.

CHILE – Economy slowed by more than anticipated

Private consumption is normalizing

CHILE – CAD narrows at the margin

A rising goods surplus is indicative of the domestic demand slowdown that is underway

COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit to start the year

A gradual narrowing of the external imbalance.

PERU – Activity deteriorated in January

Construction and mining sectors were the most affected.

COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics to start the 23

Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.

ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in Feb.

We maintain our inflation forecast of 100% for this year, with upward risk.

MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside

Recent inflation evolution is supportive with slowing down the pace of rate hikes.

CHILE – CPI falls in February

Core inflation remains elevated at the margin.

CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February

Imports continue to trend down.

MEXICO – Internal demand ended on a strong note

Solid internal demand expansion is unlikely to last amid a softer external scenario.

COLOMBIA – Another large inflation increase

Another rate hike this month amid still rising inflation and unanchored inflation expectations.

CHILE – Revenues jump start fiscal accounts

A surplus to start the year.

COLOMBIA – CAD narrows in 4Q yet remains wide

Slowing domestic demand will aid a CAD correction this year.

MEXICO – 4Q22 Inflation Report: cautious tone on

Our terminal policy rate forecast is at 11.50%, which implies two 25-bp rate hikes more.

CHILE – Another upside activity surprise in Jan.

Data points to a more gradual closing of the positive output gap than initially expected.

PERU – Inflation surprised to the downside

BCRP policy rate likely to remain unchanged in March’s meeting.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment exceeds expectations

Sequential employment gains fail to offset the labor force increase.

CHILE – Mixed activity dynamics to start the year

Activity excluding mining is still falling sharply on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

CHILE – Employment ticks up in January

Job gains pulled again by the formal sector.

MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in January

Manufacturing exports rebound is unlikely to last given a soft external scenario.

MEXICO – 2022 Current account deficit widened

High remittances mitigated the worsening of the trade goods balance.

MEXICO – GDP slowed in 4Q22

Manufacturing output was the main drag to sequential GDP growth.

ARGENTINA – Activity contracted in December

We now see downside risks to our -1.5% GDP growth forecast.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes

We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes in the March meeting.

MEXICO – Slight downside CPI surprise in 1H Feb.

Banxico will likely slow down the rate hike pace in March.

ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased in January

To reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 – as agreed to with the IMF – is challenging in our view.

ARGENTINA – Trade deficit in January

We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe drought.

CHILE – MoF's fiscal projections for 2023

Growth revised down as fiscal impulse turns positive.

COLOMBIA – GDP grows by a lower-than-expected

Higher rates and weak domestic sentiment point to an activity slowdown ahead.

PERU – Activity surprised to the downside in Dec

Protests during December likely had some impact on activity.

ARGENTINA – Inflation accelerated in January

In the absence of consistent fiscal and monetary policies, price controls are unlikely to succeed in taming inflation.

COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit narrowing in 2022

Imports lose momentum.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Inflation convergence to rely significantly on the credibility of the Central Bank.

MEXICO – Industrial production upside in Dec.
A rebound in construction sector supported the expansion in industrial production.

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 50-bp hike
We now expect a terminal policy rate of 11.50%.

MEXICO – Core inflation rebounded in January
One-off price adjustments pressured core inflation.

CHILE – Inflation starts with an upside surprise
Inertia and the full effect of the VAT on services should keep inflationary pressures elevated ahead.

MEXICO – Soft internal demand in November
Private consumption was the main drag to internal demand in the month.

CHILE – A large trade surplus to start the year
CAD correction expected ahead.

COLOMBIA – A large, but expected, CPI increase
Service pressures remain on the up.

PERU – Inflation rebounded in January
Inflation surprised to the downside, but it remains pressured.

CHILE – GDP grows 2.7% in 2022
The economy showed greater resilience during the latter part of 2022.

COLOMBIA – Employment falls sequentially in 4Q22
A notable rise in the minimum wage contribute to the weakening of the labor market.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report
Higher inflation expectations amid a strong indexation process.

CHILE – Fiscal dynamics
Downturn to stress the fiscal accounts.

CHILE – Activity ends 22 on a better-than-expected
Non-mining activity continued to fall at the margin in 4Q22.

MEXICO – Activity moderated in 4Q22
GDP growth in 2022 would stand preliminarily at 3.0%.

MEXICO – Below target fiscal balance in 2022
Deviation in the fiscal balance is explained by lower than estimated tax revenues.

CHILE – Unemployment rate closes 2022 at 7.9%
Labor market deterioration should help to correct macro imbalances.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp hike
The tightening cycle is close to concluding.

MEXICO – Narrower trade deficit in 4Q22
Manufacturing exports momentum weakened.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Unanimous hold
The Board continues to signal a cautious approach.

ARGENTINA – New sequential decline in Activity
For 2023, we expect activity to contract by 1.5%, following an expansion of 5.5% in 2022.

MEXICO – Annual inflation rebounded in 1H Jan.
We expect Banxico to hike its policy rate by 25-bp in the February meeting.

ARGENTINA – 2022 Fiscal deficit outperforms targ
We believe that it will be challenging to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2023 due to the electoral cycle.

MEXICO – Retail sales weakened in November
Retail sales momentum is soft.

ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in December
We forecast a trade surplus of USD 7.0 billion for 2023, with downside risks from a likely severe draught.

COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrows in November
Consumption slowdown ahead will point to a further weakness in imports.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators moderated in Nov.
We expect the economy to slow to 0.6% in 2023.

PERU – Activity slowed in November
Activity momentum is also soft.

ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in December
The 12-month inflation reading came in at 94.8%.

MEXICO – Industrial production stagnated in Nov.
Manufacturing sector deteriorated, consistent with a soft external scenario.

MEXICO – Internal demand expanded in October
Gross fixed investment remains below the level at the beginning of the current administration.

CHILE – A large trade surplus in December
We expect a gradual CAD adjustment for this year.

MEXICO – Core inflation peaked in November
Inflation was broadly in line with market expectations.

CHILE – Inflation falls to 12.8% to close off 22
Inflationary pressures at the margin are easing.

MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting minutes
Our terminal policy rate forecast stands at 11.25%.

COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Inflationary pressures at the margin show no sign of easing.

CHILE – Mining-led 2.5% Imacec fall in November
The outlook for activity dynamics remain downbeat as business sentiment sits near lockdown levels.

CHILE – Weak activity data in November
The economic adjustment continues as the economy moves to more sustainable levels.

COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate surprises in Nov.
Employment softened at the margin.

CHILE – Massive fiscal adjustment continues
Real expenditures fall by 35.8% in November.

PERU – Still high inflation in December
We expect inflation to slow down to 3.7% by the end of this year.

CHILE – Gradual labor market loosening underway
Stalled labor force is preventing a higher unemployment rate.

MEXICO – Narrower than expected trade deficit
Manufacturing exports and non-oil imports weakened.

MEXICO – Monthly GDP stagnated in October
Our GDP growth forecast stands at 2.9% for 2022.

MEXICO – Slight core inflation slowdown
We expect another 50-bp rate hike in first meeting of next year.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Bolstering policy credibility a key factor behind the Board’s stance.

ARGENTINA – Sequential activity contraction
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast upward for 2022, to 5.5% from 4.2% in the previous scenario.

MEXICO – Domestic demand moderated in 3Q22
Private and private demand curbed domestic demand growth.

COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in October
External imbalances yet to correct.

MEXICO – Decent retail sales expansion in October
Private consumption determinants are still supportive.

ARGENTINA – Large trade surplus in November
Imports decelerated further, affected by controls.

COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting
Rate cuts unlikely until 2H23.

ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected CPI in November
Consumer prices rose by 4.9% mom in November (from 6.3% in October).

MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision
We expect a policy terminal rate of 11.25%.

COLOMBIA – Activity indicators mixed in October
A contractionary monetary policy and high inflation will likely dent consumption dynamics ahead.

PERU – Sequential activity deteriorated in Oct.
Activity momentum is soft.

CHILE – A New Constitutional Process takes Shape
Agreement lays the groundwork for a new constitutional process.

MEXICO – industrial production expansion in Oct.
Expansion was supported by construction sector, while manufacturing output grew at soft pace.

MEXICO – Core inflation tainted by black Friday
We expect Banxico to slow down the pace of rate hikes to 50-bp in December.

CHILE – A small trade surplus in November
Imports slowdown ahead should help to correct external imbalances.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Report
Risks to the central bank scenario stem mainly from the external scenario.

CHILE – Inflation rebounds in November
Another large surprise to inflation.

CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting
Awaiting the correction of the current macroeconomic imbalances before easing.

MEXICO – Slower internal demand expansion in3Q22
Gross fixed investment is dragged by construction investment.

COLOMBIA – Another upside inflation surprise
Core pressures remain elevated.

COLOMBIA – Large current account deficit in 3Q22
Foreign direct investment eased from recent quarters.

CHILE – Fiscal revenues contract in October
Fiscal surplus expected this year.

CHILE – Gradual activity adjustment continues
GDP growth for this year will likely exceed our 2.3% call.

MEXICO – 3Q22 Inflation Report
Banxico increased their GDP growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 3.0% (from 2.2%) and 1.8% (from 1.6%), respectively.