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Macroeconomic Analysis

Reports and forecasts from our economic research team

Economic reports

Latest analysis on the main economic themes
  • Brazil

    Analysis on Brazilian economic themes published by the Central Bank, the statistics institute IBGE, among others

  • LatAm

    Analysis on economic indicators from other Latam countries covered by Itaú's economic research team

  • Global

    Current macroeconomic outlook for the global economy

Equity Research

Sector and publicly-traded company analysis prepared by our team of especialists.

Specific Reports

In-depth reports on macroeconomic issues.
  • MEXICO: An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE: A primer on the draft constitutional text

    All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • BRAZIL: Services inflation: Is it different this time?

    The labor market shows signs of heating, but due to cyclical and structural factors, evaluating the services inflation is challenging.

  • CHILE: Assessing the pace of the disinflationary process

    CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA: An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

  • CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters

    We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.

  • BRAZIL: Reassessing international reserves

    In our view, if the global situation allows, authorities should consider restarting a program to rebuild net reserves.

  • CHILE: An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 2023

    MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.

  • BRAZIL: We expect a 0.3% GDP growth in the 2Q23

    2Q23 GDP should have advanced 0.3%, driven by services.

  • BRAZIL: Following the fuel prices adjustment, we now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA this year

    Upward revision of inflation for the year with increase in fuel prices.

  • Brazil Orange Book - N39 | August, 2023

    Given the contractionary stage of the monetary policy cycle, the economy is showing a good deal of resiliency, But growth will be slower in the 2 half

  • El Niño to impact mostly corn and soybean crops grown in the North/Northeast

    With an El Niño less intense than that of 2015-16, impacts on agricultural GDP and inflation should be limited.

  • BRAZIL: Tax reform: 10 FAQs

    Important reform that brings positive effects to the economy.

  • MEXICO: An early look at 2024 Elections

    Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.

  • BRAZIL: Court-ordered payments, spending ceiling and fiscal discipline

    We expect the government/CMN to confirm the inflation target at 3%, with tolerance range of 1.5pp

  • BRAZIL: We forecast 1Q23 GDP growth at 1.4% qoq/sa

    Agriculture, resilient labor market and fiscal impulse sustained the economic activity in 1Q23.

  • BRAZIL: Fuel price cuts reduce our forecast for consumer inflation in 2023 to 5.8% from 6.0% | May, 2023

    Downward revision in 2023 inflation estimate.

  • BRAZIL: Guide to the Government’s revenue measures | May, 2023

    If measures are implemented, fiscal risk perception could decline.

  • MEXICO: Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation | May 2023

    Rate cuts are unlikely this year.

  • BRAZIL: Fiscal framework (PLP 93/2023): FAQ, positive aspects, and enhancement recommendations | May 2023

    Proposal is pivotal and is being debated in Congress.

  • BRAZIL: Fiscal rules: FAQs and basic principles | Mar 2023

    New fiscal framework will be key to reduce the perception of fiscal risks.

  • BRAZIL: We estimate flat GDP in 4Q22 | Feb 2023

    Economic activity slowed down at the end of 2022.

  • BRAZIL: Higher target, higher inflation | Jan 2023

    Raising inflation target would increase inflation and would not reduce the interest rate.

  • CHILE: Fiscal policy expansionary stance in 2023 | Oct 2022

    Transitory improvement of fiscal accounts, as growth headwinds mount.

  • BRAZIL: Selic rate to remain high for a long time | Sep 2022

    The expected dynamics for inflation and the output gap should prevent interest rate cuts in 1H23.

  • Recovery in the labor market

    We expect employment growth to lose momentum over the next few months

  • Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics

    September 19, 2022

  • Algorithm for reading CB meeting minutes

    Algorithm for reading minutes indicates the end of the BCB cycle

  • CHILE: Temporary relief in fiscal accounts

    Transitory fiscal relief as headwinds mount

  • We revised our 22 IPCA forecast to 7.5% from 8.7%

    We maintain the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%

Other products

Our presentations, economic series and forecasts.
  • Presentations

    Monthly presentation with the economic outlook in Brazil and abroad.

  • Economic Series

    Specific economic indicators created by Itaú's economic team.

  • Forecasts

    Up-to-date forecasts for Brazil, Latam and the global economy.

Our team

Meet our team of specialists.
  • Mario Mesquita

    Chief Economist at Itaú Unibanco, holds a doctorate degree in Economics from Oxford and was Deputy Governor for the BCB.

  • Fernando Gonçalves

    Head of the sell-side area in the Macroeconomic research team, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California.

  • Julia Gottlieb

    Responsible for economic analysis of Brazil and service to the conglomerate. Has a master's degree in economics from PUC-RJ.

  • Pedro Schneider

    Responsible for economic analysis for the treasury desk, international scenario, politics and fiscal policy in BR. Has a master's degree in economics.

  • Andres Perez Morales

    Is responsible for covering Latin American economies, ex-Brazil. MBA, MPP, BA Economics all from the University of Chicago.

  • Thiago Macruz

    Responsible for research coverage of Brazilian companies, holds a bachelor in economics by the University of São Paulo.

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