Economic reports
Latest analysis on the main economic themes
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Brazil
Analysis on Brazilian economic themes published by the Central Bank, the statistics institute IBGE, among others
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LatAm
Analysis on economic indicators from other Latam countries covered by Itaú's economic research team
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Global
Current macroeconomic outlook for the global economy
Equity Research
Sector and publicly-traded company analysis prepared by our team of especialists.
Specific Reports
In-depth reports on macroeconomic issues.
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MEXICO: An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24
Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.
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CHILE: A primer on the draft constitutional text
All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.
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BRAZIL: Services inflation: Is it different this time?
The labor market shows signs of heating, but due to cyclical and structural factors, evaluating the services inflation is challenging.
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CHILE: Assessing the pace of the disinflationary process
CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process
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COLOMBIA: An overview of recent liquidity dynamics
Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.
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CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters
We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.
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BRAZIL: Reassessing international reserves
In our view, if the global situation allows, authorities should consider restarting a program to rebuild net reserves.
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CHILE: An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 2023
MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.
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BRAZIL: We expect a 0.3% GDP growth in the 2Q23
2Q23 GDP should have advanced 0.3%, driven by services.
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BRAZIL: Following the fuel prices adjustment, we now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA this year
Upward revision of inflation for the year with increase in fuel prices.
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Brazil Orange Book - N39 | August, 2023
Given the contractionary stage of the monetary policy cycle, the economy is showing a good deal of resiliency, But growth will be slower in the 2 half
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El Niño to impact mostly corn and soybean crops grown in the North/Northeast
With an El Niño less intense than that of 2015-16, impacts on agricultural GDP and inflation should be limited.
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BRAZIL: Tax reform: 10 FAQs
Important reform that brings positive effects to the economy.
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MEXICO: An early look at 2024 Elections
Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.
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BRAZIL: Court-ordered payments, spending ceiling and fiscal discipline
We expect the government/CMN to confirm the inflation target at 3%, with tolerance range of 1.5pp
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BRAZIL: We forecast 1Q23 GDP growth at 1.4% qoq/sa
Agriculture, resilient labor market and fiscal impulse sustained the economic activity in 1Q23.
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BRAZIL: Fuel price cuts reduce our forecast for consumer inflation in 2023 to 5.8% from 6.0% | May, 2023
Downward revision in 2023 inflation estimate.
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BRAZIL: Guide to the Government’s revenue measures | May, 2023
If measures are implemented, fiscal risk perception could decline.
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MEXICO: Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation | May 2023
Rate cuts are unlikely this year.
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BRAZIL: Fiscal framework (PLP 93/2023): FAQ, positive aspects, and enhancement recommendations | May 2023
Proposal is pivotal and is being debated in Congress.
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BRAZIL: Fiscal rules: FAQs and basic principles | Mar 2023
New fiscal framework will be key to reduce the perception of fiscal risks.
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BRAZIL: We estimate flat GDP in 4Q22 | Feb 2023
Economic activity slowed down at the end of 2022.
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BRAZIL: Higher target, higher inflation | Jan 2023
Raising inflation target would increase inflation and would not reduce the interest rate.
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CHILE: Fiscal policy expansionary stance in 2023 | Oct 2022
Transitory improvement of fiscal accounts, as growth headwinds mount.
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BRAZIL: Selic rate to remain high for a long time | Sep 2022
The expected dynamics for inflation and the output gap should prevent interest rate cuts in 1H23.
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Recovery in the labor market
We expect employment growth to lose momentum over the next few months
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Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics
September 19, 2022
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Algorithm for reading CB meeting minutes
Algorithm for reading minutes indicates the end of the BCB cycle
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CHILE: Temporary relief in fiscal accounts
Transitory fiscal relief as headwinds mount
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We revised our 22 IPCA forecast to 7.5% from 8.7%
We maintain the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%
Other products
Our presentations, economic series and forecasts.
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Presentations
Monthly presentation with the economic outlook in Brazil and abroad.
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Economic Series
Specific economic indicators created by Itaú's economic team.
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Forecasts
Up-to-date forecasts for Brazil, Latam and the global economy.
Our team
Meet our team of specialists.
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Mario Mesquita
Chief Economist at Itaú Unibanco, holds a doctorate degree in Economics from Oxford and was Deputy Governor for the BCB.
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Fernando Gonçalves
Head of the sell-side area in the Macroeconomic research team, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California.
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Julia Gottlieb
Responsible for economic analysis of Brazil and service to the conglomerate. Has a master's degree in economics from PUC-RJ.
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Pedro Schneider
Responsible for economic analysis for the treasury desk, international scenario, politics and fiscal policy in BR. Has a master's degree in economics.
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Andres Perez Morales
Is responsible for covering Latin American economies, ex-Brazil. MBA, MPP, BA Economics all from the University of Chicago.
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Thiago Macruz
Responsible for research coverage of Brazilian companies, holds a bachelor in economics by the University of São Paulo.
