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Macroeconomic Analysis

Reports and forecasts from our economic research team

Economic reports

Latest analysis on the main economic themes
  • Brazil

    Analysis on Brazilian economic themes published by the Central Bank, the statistics institute IBGE, among others

  • LatAm

    Analysis on economic indicators from other Latam countries covered by Itaú's economic research team

  • Global

    Current macroeconomic outlook for the global economy

Equity Research

Sector and publicly-traded company analysis prepared by our team of especialists.

Specific Reports

In-depth reports on macroeconomic issues.
  • BRAZIL: Revisiting estimates for the neutral interest rate

    05/2024 | Based on different methodologies, we reevaluate estimates of neutral real interest in Brazil

  • BRAZIL: The weight of wages: a core measure that reweights the IPCA

    05/2024 | We reweighted the IPCA according to the labor intensity of each item in order to see the impact of the tight labor market on inflation.

  • CHILE: Retail Sales – The only way is up! right?

    05/2024 | Retail sales to support gradual private consumption-led recovery in 2024.

  • CHILE: Inflation expectations: Lessons from surveys and swaps

    04/2024 | Inflation expectations play a fundamental role in inflation targeting regimes.

  • BRAZIL: The importance of taming inflation expectations

    03/2024 | When it comes to deviations from the inflation target, how unanchored expectations are and for how long are both crucial.

  • CHILE: CLP dynamics: The sky’s the limit?

    2024/03/05 | CLP pressure expected to ease ahead.

  • Synchrony between neighbors: inflation surprises: inflation surprises are correlated in Latin America

    2024/02/27 | An inflationary surprise in one country may have indications about the deviations observed in other countries in the region.

  • BRAZIL: A guide to fiscal policy in Brazil in 2024

    02/2024 | This report is a guide to the main fiscal events and debates we anticipate for 2024.

  • BRAZIL: Economic impacts of a tax reform: the India case study

    01/2024 | Impacts of the Indian tax reform: parallel with the Brazilian reform.

  • CHILE: An Assessment of Fiscal Dynamics into 2024

    01/2024 | Tax reforms and adjustments to the fiscal framework to continue in 2024.

  • BRAZIL: We expect a decline of 0.2% in 3Q23 GDP

    12/2023 | The services sector should slow down noticeably, advancing 1.3% yoy (vs. 2.3% in 2Q23).

  • MEXICO: An assessment of the fiscal stance for 24

    11/2023 | Expansive fiscal stance increases the odds of keeping a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

  • CHILE: A primer on the draft constitutional text

    11/2023 | All eyes on the December 17 plebiscite.

  • BRAZIL: Services inflation: Is it different this time?

    10/2023 | The labor market shows signs of heating, but due to cyclical and structural factors, evaluating the services inflation is challenging.

  • CHILE: Assessing the pace of the disinflationary process

    09/2023 | CLP depreciation, international oil prices, and supply shocks may slow the disinflationary process

  • COLOMBIA: An overview of recent liquidity dynamics

    09/2023 | Liquidity remains tight in Colombia.

  • CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters

    09/2023 | We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.

  • BRAZIL: Reassessing international reserves

    09/2023 | In our view, if the global situation allows, authorities should consider restarting a program to rebuild net reserves.

  • CHILE: An overview of the MoF’s dollar sales in 2023

    08/2023 | MoF to sell even more dollars in 4Q23.

  • BRAZIL: We expect a 0.3% GDP growth in the 2Q23

    08/2023 | 2Q23 GDP should have advanced 0.3%, driven by services.

  • BRAZIL: Following the fuel prices adjustment, we now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA this year

    08/2023 | Upward revision of inflation for the year with increase in fuel prices.

  • Brazil Orange Book - N39 | August, 2023

    Given the contractionary stage of the monetary policy cycle, the economy is showing a good deal of resiliency, But growth will be slower in the 2 half

  • El Niño to impact mostly corn and soybean crops grown in the North/Northeast

    07/2023 | With an El Niño less intense than that of 2015-16, impacts on agricultural GDP and inflation should be limited.

  • BRAZIL: Tax reform: 10 FAQs

    07/2023 | Important reform that brings positive effects to the economy.

  • MEXICO: An early look at 2024 Elections

    06/2023 | Odds of the ruling party Morena securing the presidency are high.

  • BRAZIL: We forecast 1Q23 GDP growth at 1.4% qoq/sa

    05/2023 | Agriculture, resilient labor market and fiscal impulse sustained the economic activity in 1Q23.

  • BRAZIL: Fuel price cuts reduce our forecast for consumer inflation in 2023 to 5.8% from 6.0% | May, 2023

    05/2023 | Downward revision in 2023 inflation estimate.

  • BRAZIL: Guide to the Government’s revenue measures | May, 2023

    05/2023 | If measures are implemented, fiscal risk perception could decline.

  • MEXICO: Assessing rate cuts amid slowing inflation | May 2023

    05/2023 | Rate cuts are unlikely this year.

  • BRAZIL: Fiscal rules: FAQs and basic principles | Mar 2023

    03/2023 | New fiscal framework will be key to reduce the perception of fiscal risks.

Other products

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Our team

Meet our team of specialists.
  • Mario Mesquita

    Chief Economist at Itaú Unibanco, holds a doctorate degree in Economics from Oxford and was Deputy Governor for the BCB.

  • Fernando Gonçalves

    Head of the sell-side area in the Macroeconomic research team, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, in Berkeley.

  • Julia Gottlieb

    Responsible for economic analysis of Brazil and service to the conglomerate. Has a master's degree in economics from PUC-RJ.

  • Pedro Schneider

    Responsible for economic analysis for the treasury desk, international scenario, politics and fiscal policy in BR. Has a master's degree in economics.

  • Andres Perez Morales

    Is responsible for covering Latin American economies, ex-Brazil. MBA, MPP, BA Economics all from the University of Chicago.

  • Thiago Macruz

    Responsible for research coverage of Brazilian companies, holds a bachelor in economics by the University of São Paulo.

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