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Brazil | Economic Analysis

See here the Macro Brazil, Scenario Review and Macro Vision reports

Macro Brazil

  • Unemployment rate | November 30, 2023

    October's data continued to show mixed signs.

  • IPCA-15 | November 28, 2023

    Core inflation continued to decline, reinforcing a sequence of data that confirms the ongoing disinflation process.

  • IDAT-Activity

    Daily Economic Activity Tracker.

  • October IDAT-Activity Report

    The IDAT-Activity has been showing some deceleration in the economy, especially in the goods sector. For the 4Q23, we also expect a slowdown in the service sector, due to the weakening of disposable income.

  • Service setor | November 14, 2023

    Our GDP tracking for the 3Q23 remained at -0.2% qoq/sa (+1.8% yoy).

  • IPCA | November 10, 2023

    Core inflation continued to decline, reinforcing a sequence of data prints that confirm the ongoing disinflation process.

  • FX market | November 9, 2023

    Keeping the next couple of months close to the historical average, this year's flow would close in positive territory at almost US$ 17 bn.

  • Fiscal | November 8, 2023

    Fiscal risks increased again with discussions about an early change in next year's primary result target.

  • Retail sales | November 8, 2023

    Core retail sales above market expectations

  • Credit | November 7, 2023

    The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate stood virtually unchanged at 3.6%.

  • IDAT-Employment and Wage | November 7, 2023

    Stable employment and rising wages in September.

  • Copom Minutes | November 7, 2023

    We expect the committee to reduce the Selic rate to 11.75% pa in the December meeting, and to 9.50% pa in 2024.

  • Current Account | November 6, 2023

    Our forecast for the current account deficit this year is US$ 30 billion (1.5% of GDP).

  • Copom | November 1, 2023

    Given today's statement and the uncertainties on the global and domestic scenarios, we now expect the Selic rate at 9.50% by the end of the cycle, and at 11.75% by the end of this year.

  • Trade Balance | November 1, 2023

    Trade balance remains with a strong pace, mainly due to exports

  • Industrial production | October 3, 2023

    Industrial production virtually stable in September.

  • Unemployment rate | October 31, 2023

    Unemployment rate in line with expectations.

  • Copom Cockpit | October 27, 2023

    We anticipate a 50-bp cut in the Selic benchmark rate to 12.25% pa, with the authorities repeating, in the statement, that they foresee reductions of the same magnitude in the next meetings.

  • IPCA-15 | October 26, 2023

    The diffusion metric, both for the full index and for the IPCA-EX3 core, continued to show an additional drop, signaling greater disinflation ahead.

  • Retail sales | October 18, 2023

    Core retail sales surprise upwards in August

  • Service setor | October 17, 2023

    Services surprised negatively in August

  • IPCA | October 11, 2023

    The surprise in today's data indicates a downward bias for our 4.9% IPCA forecast for the full year.

  • IDAT-Employment and Wage | October 5, 2023

    Labor market remains resilient.

  • FX market | October 4, 2023

    The Brazilian FX market registers a robust inflow in 2023, because of the good performance of the trade segment.

  • Industrial production | October 3, 2023

    Industrial production advanced, but below expectations in August.

  • Trade Balance | October 2, 2023

    The trade balance remains at a strong pace, driven mainly by exports.

Brazil Scenario Review

  • Scenario | November, 2023

    We reduced our inflation estimates to 4.6% (from 4.9%) for 2023 and to 4.0% (from 4.1%) for 2024, but external challenges and domestic uncertainties (particularly regarding the fiscal consolidation outlook) will likely prevent faster Selic rate cuts ahead.

  • Scenario | October, 2023

    We maintain our call for the Selic rate at 11.50% in YE23 and 9.0% in YE24, but the external scenario and the fiscal outlook will be key to determine the easing pace and terminal rate ahead.

  • Scenario | September, 2023

    We now expect the Selic rate to reach 11.50% p.a. by the end of 2023 and 9.00% by the end of 2024.

  • Brazil Orange Book - N39 | August, 2023

    Given the contractionary stage of the monetary policy cycle, the economy is showing a good deal of resiliency. But growth will be significantly slower in the second half.

  • Scenario | August, 2023

    We revised our GDP growth forecast in 2023 to 2.5% from 2.3%. Regarding the monetary policy, we believe the central bank will continue to cut the Selic rate at a pace of 50 bps per meeting this year, to 11.75% pa by year-end.

  • Scenario | July, 2023

    We expect the Copom to deliver a 25-bp cut in August, followed by 50-bp reductions from September onwards.

  • Scenario | June, 2023

    We revised our 2023 growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.4% due to a strong 1Q23 and the expectation that income will support consumption.

  • Scenario | May, 2023

    Highlights: we’ve increased our GDP growth forecast to 1.4% (from 1.1%) in 2023, and reduced our FX forecast to BRL 5.15/USD (from 5.30).

  • Scenario | April, 2023

    New fiscal framework establishes spending limit; the challenge is now to complement it with revenue-recovery measures

  • Scenario | March, 2023

    To reverse the worsening in inflation expectations, the commitment to low inflation and fiscal discipline must be reaffirmed.

  • Scenario | February, 2023

    We maintain our forecasts for the Selic at 12.50% in 2023, but see risks to the upside.

  • Scenario | January, 2023

    In the absence of corrective actions, this scenario could lead to a new cycle of low growth, high inflation and Selic rate.

  • Scenario | December, 2022

    A rising public debt trend could lead to a new cycle of lower growth, high inflation and high interest rates.

  • Brazil Orange Book - N38 | November, 2022

    High interest rates: a bitter medicine.

  • Scenario | November, 2022

    Fiscal sustainability will continue to be the main challenge in the next administration.

  • Scenario | October, 2022

    We lowered our inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023.

  • Scenario | September, 2022

    We expect lower inflation in 2022 and stronger GDP growth in 2022 and 2023.

  • Scenario | August, 2022

    We expect stronger 22 GDP growth, with more growth in the 2Q; we also expect the Copom to end the tightening cycle at 13.75%.

  • Scenario | July, 2022

    Lower IPCA forecast and higher GDP estimate for 2022, but fiscal sustainability is turning into a significant challenge.

  • Scenario | June, 2022

    We revised upwards our IPCA forecast to 8.7% from 8.5%, in 2022, and to 5.6% from 4.2%, in 2023.

  • Scenario | May, 2022

    We changed our IPCA 2022 forecast to 8.5% from 7.5%, due to higher regulated and market-set prices.

  • Scenario | April, 2022

    We have revised our 2022 GDP forecast to +1.0% from +0.2%, with upward revision in 1Q and cash releases from FGTS in 2Q.

  • Scenario | March, 2022

    The main impacts from the war in Ukraine will be in commodity prices, with higher inflation, Selic and growth rates in 2022.

  • Scenario | February, 2022

    We now expect the Selic rate to reach 12.50% at the end of the cycle.

  • Brazil Orange Book - N37 | January 2022

    The steep economic recovery has lost momentum, but its side effects are still quite present.

Macro Vision

  • IDAT-Activity: expanding the scope

    2023/11/29 | We have expanded the scope of IDAT-Activity to include flows of other payment methods.

  • Services inflation: Is it different this time?

    2023/10/10 | The labor market shows signs of heating, but due to cyclical and structural factors, evaluating the services inflation is challenging.

  • Reassessing international reserves

    2023/09/05 | In our view, if the global situation allows, authorities should consider restarting a program to rebuild net reserves.

  • We expect a 0.3% GDP growth in the 2Q23

    2023/08/25 | 2Q23 GDP should have advanced 0.3%, driven by services.

  • We now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA in 2023

    2023/08/15 | Upward revision of inflation for the year with increase in fuel prices.

  • No jumping the gun

    2023/07/28 | We expect the Brazilian Central Bank to be cautious when starting the easing cycle (that is, with a -25bps cut in the Selic benchmark rate to 13.50% from 13.75% pa).

  • El Niño to impact mostly corn and soybean crops

    2023/07/20 | With an El Niño less intense than that of 2015-16, impacts on agricultural GDP and inflation should be limited.

  • Tax reform: 10 FAQs

    2023/07/18 | Important reform that brings positive effects to the economy

  • Continuous inflation targeting regime

    2023/06/15 | We expect the government/CMN to confirm the inflation target at 3%, with tolerance range of 1.5pp and move the target from calendar year to a continuous target.

  • We forecast 1Q23 GDP growth at 1.4% qoq/sa

    2023/05/25 | Agriculture, resilient labor market and fiscal impulse sustained the economic activity in 1Q23.

  • Fuel price reduce our forecast for inflation in 23

    2023/05/16 | Downward revision in 2023 inflation estimate.

  • Guide to the Government’s revenue measures

    2023/05/16 | If measures are implemented, fiscal risk perception could decline.

  • Fiscal rules: FAQs Fiscal framework

    2023/05/09 | Proposal is pivotal and is being debated in Congress.

  • Fiscal rules: FAQs and basic principles

    2023/03/07 | New fiscal framework will be key to reduce the perception of fiscal risks.

  • We estimate flat GDP in 4Q22

    Economic activity slowed down at the end of 2022.

  • Higher target, higher inflation

    Raising inflation target would increase inflation and would not reduce the interest rate.

  • Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics

    January, 2023.

  • Macro Insights – 2023 fiscal expansion

    Values above R$ 96 billion represent a significant fiscal expansion next year.

  • We forecast 2.8% GDP growth in 2022

    We anticipate a 0.5% increase in GDP in 3Q22.

  • Electoral Polls Tracker – Aggregator

    See the charts with the moving average of the results of the eight latest polls.

  • Electoral Polls Tracker – Datafolha

    See the charts with the results of the poll, including the breakdown by region, income, gender, education level, age, etc...

  • Selic rate to remain high for a long time

    The expected dynamics for inflation and the output gap should prevent interest rate cuts in 1H23.

  • Recovery in the labor market

    We expect employment growth to lose momentum over the next few months.

  • Electoral Polls Tracker – Ipec

    See the charts with the results of the poll, including the breakdown by region, income, gender, education level, age, etc...

  • Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics

    September 19, 2022.

  • Algorithm for reading CB meeting minutes

    Algorithm for reading minutes indicates the end of the BCB cycle.

  • Macro Insights – Fiscal policy roadmap

    In this report, we discuss the five main fiscal policy decisions that you should watch over the next months.

  • IDAT - Activity: methodology revision

    27/07/2022 | We are revising the methodology and release format of our proprietary economic activity index.

History - Macro Brazil

History - Macro Vision