Brazil | Economic Analysis
See here the Macro Brazil, Scenario Review and Macro Vision reports
Macro Brazil
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Unemployment rate | November 30, 2023
October's data continued to show mixed signs.
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IPCA-15 | November 28, 2023
Core inflation continued to decline, reinforcing a sequence of data that confirms the ongoing disinflation process.
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IDAT-Activity
Daily Economic Activity Tracker.
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October IDAT-Activity Report
The IDAT-Activity has been showing some deceleration in the economy, especially in the goods sector. For the 4Q23, we also expect a slowdown in the service sector, due to the weakening of disposable income.
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Service setor | November 14, 2023
Our GDP tracking for the 3Q23 remained at -0.2% qoq/sa (+1.8% yoy).
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IPCA | November 10, 2023
Core inflation continued to decline, reinforcing a sequence of data prints that confirm the ongoing disinflation process.
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FX market | November 9, 2023
Keeping the next couple of months close to the historical average, this year's flow would close in positive territory at almost US$ 17 bn.
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Fiscal | November 8, 2023
Fiscal risks increased again with discussions about an early change in next year's primary result target.
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Retail sales | November 8, 2023
Core retail sales above market expectations
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Credit | November 7, 2023
The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate stood virtually unchanged at 3.6%.
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IDAT-Employment and Wage | November 7, 2023
Stable employment and rising wages in September.
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Copom Minutes | November 7, 2023
We expect the committee to reduce the Selic rate to 11.75% pa in the December meeting, and to 9.50% pa in 2024.
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Current Account | November 6, 2023
Our forecast for the current account deficit this year is US$ 30 billion (1.5% of GDP).
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Copom | November 1, 2023
Given today's statement and the uncertainties on the global and domestic scenarios, we now expect the Selic rate at 9.50% by the end of the cycle, and at 11.75% by the end of this year.
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Trade Balance | November 1, 2023
Trade balance remains with a strong pace, mainly due to exports
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Industrial production | October 3, 2023
Industrial production virtually stable in September.
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Unemployment rate | October 31, 2023
Unemployment rate in line with expectations.
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Copom Cockpit | October 27, 2023
We anticipate a 50-bp cut in the Selic benchmark rate to 12.25% pa, with the authorities repeating, in the statement, that they foresee reductions of the same magnitude in the next meetings.
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IPCA-15 | October 26, 2023
The diffusion metric, both for the full index and for the IPCA-EX3 core, continued to show an additional drop, signaling greater disinflation ahead.
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Retail sales | October 18, 2023
Core retail sales surprise upwards in August
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Service setor | October 17, 2023
Services surprised negatively in August
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IPCA | October 11, 2023
The surprise in today's data indicates a downward bias for our 4.9% IPCA forecast for the full year.
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IDAT-Employment and Wage | October 5, 2023
Labor market remains resilient.
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FX market | October 4, 2023
The Brazilian FX market registers a robust inflow in 2023, because of the good performance of the trade segment.
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Industrial production | October 3, 2023
Industrial production advanced, but below expectations in August.
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Trade Balance | October 2, 2023
The trade balance remains at a strong pace, driven mainly by exports.
Brazil Scenario Review
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Scenario | November, 2023
We reduced our inflation estimates to 4.6% (from 4.9%) for 2023 and to 4.0% (from 4.1%) for 2024, but external challenges and domestic uncertainties (particularly regarding the fiscal consolidation outlook) will likely prevent faster Selic rate cuts ahead.
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Scenario | October, 2023
We maintain our call for the Selic rate at 11.50% in YE23 and 9.0% in YE24, but the external scenario and the fiscal outlook will be key to determine the easing pace and terminal rate ahead.
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Scenario | September, 2023
We now expect the Selic rate to reach 11.50% p.a. by the end of 2023 and 9.00% by the end of 2024.
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Brazil Orange Book - N39 | August, 2023
Given the contractionary stage of the monetary policy cycle, the economy is showing a good deal of resiliency. But growth will be significantly slower in the second half.
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Scenario | August, 2023
We revised our GDP growth forecast in 2023 to 2.5% from 2.3%. Regarding the monetary policy, we believe the central bank will continue to cut the Selic rate at a pace of 50 bps per meeting this year, to 11.75% pa by year-end.
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Scenario | July, 2023
We expect the Copom to deliver a 25-bp cut in August, followed by 50-bp reductions from September onwards.
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Scenario | June, 2023
We revised our 2023 growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.4% due to a strong 1Q23 and the expectation that income will support consumption.
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Scenario | May, 2023
Highlights: we’ve increased our GDP growth forecast to 1.4% (from 1.1%) in 2023, and reduced our FX forecast to BRL 5.15/USD (from 5.30).
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Scenario | April, 2023
New fiscal framework establishes spending limit; the challenge is now to complement it with revenue-recovery measures
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Scenario | March, 2023
To reverse the worsening in inflation expectations, the commitment to low inflation and fiscal discipline must be reaffirmed.
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Scenario | February, 2023
We maintain our forecasts for the Selic at 12.50% in 2023, but see risks to the upside.
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Scenario | January, 2023
In the absence of corrective actions, this scenario could lead to a new cycle of low growth, high inflation and Selic rate.
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Scenario | December, 2022
A rising public debt trend could lead to a new cycle of lower growth, high inflation and high interest rates.
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Brazil Orange Book - N38 | November, 2022
High interest rates: a bitter medicine.
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Scenario | November, 2022
Fiscal sustainability will continue to be the main challenge in the next administration.
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Scenario | October, 2022
We lowered our inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023.
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Scenario | September, 2022
We expect lower inflation in 2022 and stronger GDP growth in 2022 and 2023.
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Scenario | August, 2022
We expect stronger 22 GDP growth, with more growth in the 2Q; we also expect the Copom to end the tightening cycle at 13.75%.
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Scenario | July, 2022
Lower IPCA forecast and higher GDP estimate for 2022, but fiscal sustainability is turning into a significant challenge.
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Scenario | June, 2022
We revised upwards our IPCA forecast to 8.7% from 8.5%, in 2022, and to 5.6% from 4.2%, in 2023.
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Scenario | May, 2022
We changed our IPCA 2022 forecast to 8.5% from 7.5%, due to higher regulated and market-set prices.
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Scenario | April, 2022
We have revised our 2022 GDP forecast to +1.0% from +0.2%, with upward revision in 1Q and cash releases from FGTS in 2Q.
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Scenario | March, 2022
The main impacts from the war in Ukraine will be in commodity prices, with higher inflation, Selic and growth rates in 2022.
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Scenario | February, 2022
We now expect the Selic rate to reach 12.50% at the end of the cycle.
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Brazil Orange Book - N37 | January 2022
The steep economic recovery has lost momentum, but its side effects are still quite present.
Macro Vision
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IDAT-Activity: expanding the scope
2023/11/29 | We have expanded the scope of IDAT-Activity to include flows of other payment methods.
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Services inflation: Is it different this time?
2023/10/10 | The labor market shows signs of heating, but due to cyclical and structural factors, evaluating the services inflation is challenging.
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Reassessing international reserves
2023/09/05 | In our view, if the global situation allows, authorities should consider restarting a program to rebuild net reserves.
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We expect a 0.3% GDP growth in the 2Q23
2023/08/25 | 2Q23 GDP should have advanced 0.3%, driven by services.
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We now expect a 5.1% increase in the IPCA in 2023
2023/08/15 | Upward revision of inflation for the year with increase in fuel prices.
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No jumping the gun
2023/07/28 | We expect the Brazilian Central Bank to be cautious when starting the easing cycle (that is, with a -25bps cut in the Selic benchmark rate to 13.50% from 13.75% pa).
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El Niño to impact mostly corn and soybean crops
2023/07/20 | With an El Niño less intense than that of 2015-16, impacts on agricultural GDP and inflation should be limited.
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Tax reform: 10 FAQs
2023/07/18 | Important reform that brings positive effects to the economy
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Continuous inflation targeting regime
2023/06/15 | We expect the government/CMN to confirm the inflation target at 3%, with tolerance range of 1.5pp and move the target from calendar year to a continuous target.
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We forecast 1Q23 GDP growth at 1.4% qoq/sa
2023/05/25 | Agriculture, resilient labor market and fiscal impulse sustained the economic activity in 1Q23.
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Fuel price reduce our forecast for inflation in 23
2023/05/16 | Downward revision in 2023 inflation estimate.
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Guide to the Government’s revenue measures
2023/05/16 | If measures are implemented, fiscal risk perception could decline.
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Fiscal rules: FAQs Fiscal framework
2023/05/09 | Proposal is pivotal and is being debated in Congress.
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Fiscal rules: FAQs and basic principles
2023/03/07 | New fiscal framework will be key to reduce the perception of fiscal risks.
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We estimate flat GDP in 4Q22
Economic activity slowed down at the end of 2022.
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Higher target, higher inflation
Raising inflation target would increase inflation and would not reduce the interest rate.
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Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics
January, 2023.
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Macro Insights – 2023 fiscal expansion
Values above R$ 96 billion represent a significant fiscal expansion next year.
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We forecast 2.8% GDP growth in 2022
We anticipate a 0.5% increase in GDP in 3Q22.
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Electoral Polls Tracker – Aggregator
See the charts with the moving average of the results of the eight latest polls.
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Electoral Polls Tracker – Datafolha
See the charts with the results of the poll, including the breakdown by region, income, gender, education level, age, etc...
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Selic rate to remain high for a long time
The expected dynamics for inflation and the output gap should prevent interest rate cuts in 1H23.
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Recovery in the labor market
We expect employment growth to lose momentum over the next few months.
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Electoral Polls Tracker – Ipec
See the charts with the results of the poll, including the breakdown by region, income, gender, education level, age, etc...
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Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics
September 19, 2022.
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Algorithm for reading CB meeting minutes
Algorithm for reading minutes indicates the end of the BCB cycle.
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Macro Insights – Fiscal policy roadmap
In this report, we discuss the five main fiscal policy decisions that you should watch over the next months.
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IDAT - Activity: methodology revision
27/07/2022 | We are revising the methodology and release format of our proprietary economic activity index.
History - Macro Brazil
Primary result will likely return to a deficit this year.
Unemployment rate | September 29, 2023
Unemployment rate remained stable in August.
Quarterly Inflation Report | September, 2023
In our view, the forecasts are broadly consistent with our call that the Selic rate should end the cycle around 9.00%.
New non-earmarked loans remained stable in real terms in comparison with the previous month.
The September IPCA-15 reading showed continuity of the disinflation process with benign core composition.
Copom Minutes | September 26, 2023
We maintain our Selic rate forecast at 11.50% for year-end, and expect that, as the information set evolves, the committee will opt for an acceleration in December.
Current Account | September 25, 2023
The current account result for August continues to indicate a comfortable situation in the external accounts, with a current account deficit similar to inflows in the financing side of the balance sheet.
We continue to expect the Copom to take the Selic rate to 11.50% pa by year-end, and to 9.0% pa by the end of the cycle in 2024.
IDAT-Activity loses momentum at the end of August.
Copom Cockpit | September 15, 2023
We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50bp, without opening room for discussion about faster cuts in the short run
Retail sales | September 15, 2023
Weak broad retail, driven by auto sales.
Service setor | September 14, 2023
Service sector’s real revenue in line with expectations in July.
Underlying services slowed down to 4.1% (from 5.4%), while core industrials accelerated to 3.8% (from 3.6%).
The Brazilian FX market registers a robust inflow in 2023, because of the good performance of the trade segment.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | September 6, 2023
Labor market remains resilient.
Industrial production | September 5, 2023
Industrial production worse than expected in July.
Trade Balance | September 1, 2023
The trade balance remains at a strong pace, driven mainly by exports.
2Q23 GDP above expectations.
The consolidated public sector registered a primary budget deficit of BRL 35.8 bn in July, worse than our expectation of a BRL 30.2 bn deficit.
Unemployment rate | August 31, 2023
Unemployment rate in line with expectations.
New non-earmarked loans decreased 1.0% mom/sa in real terms in July.
Current Account | August 25, 2023
Current account result for July continues to indicate a comfortable situation in the external accounts.
The reading of the IPCA-15 in August corroborates the ongoing disinflation scenario, but indicates that the process will be gradual.
Negative IDAT-Activity driven by the goods segment in July.
Compared to our forecast, we highlight a small upward surprise in food and underlying industrials (clothing and personal care), but a more benign opening of underlying services.
Service setor | August 10, 2023
Service sector real revenue in line with expectations in June.
Year-to-date through August 4, FX flow is positive by $19.1 bn.
Retail sales showed a positive surprise in June.
Copom Minutes | August 8, 2023
We maintain our forecast that the Selic rate will end the year at 11.75% pa.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | August 4, 2023
The July’s IDAT-Employment showed a deceleration in the pace of recovery in the job market.
For now, we change our year-end Selic rate forecast to 11.75%, and will wait for the minutes on Tuesday before we consider additional changes.
Trade Balance | August 1, 2023
The trade balance registered a surplus of US$ 9.0 billion in July.
Industrial production | August 1, 2023
Statistical carry-over of 3Q23 industrial production slightly positive.
We believe that the first rate cut will be more contained in magnitude (that is, a 25-bp reduction).
Unemployment rate | July 28, 2023
Labor market remains resiliente.
Primary result in 12 months goes into deficit.
The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate ticked 0.1p.p. up to 3.6%.
Current Account | July 26, 2023
Despite a worse-than-expected reading, the current account result for June continues to indicate a comfortable situation in the external accounts.
IPCA-15 in July underscores the ongoing disinflation scenario, although inflation more linked to inertia and labor market follows a slow downward trend.
IDAT-Activity receded in June, dragged by goods consumption.
Out of 10 retail sectors, five contracted at the margin.
In May, the service sector's real revenue expanded by 0.9% mom/sa, above expectations.
June’s IPCA reading confirms disinflation in tradables, but also increased pressure in services.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | July 6, 2023
Labor market remains resilient.
Accumulated until June, total flow is positive by US$ 15 bn.
Industrial production | July 4, 2023
Industrial production should end 2Q23 close to stability.
We expect a trade surplus of US$ 70 billion in 2023.
Unemployment rate | June 30, 2023
Labor market remains resilient.
In 12 months, the consolidated primary surplus decreased to 0.4% of GDP in May (from 0.5%).
Quarterly Inflation Report | June 29, 2023
We expect the easing cycle to begin in August.
The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate ticked 0. 1p.p. up to 3.5%.
June’s IPCA-15 substantiates the ongoing disinflation scenario, although inflation more tied to inertial components continues on a slow trajectory of decline.
We now expect a 25-bp rate cut in August.
Current Account | June 26, 2023
The current account deficit in 12 months totaled US$ 48.5 bn (2.45% of GDP).
We continue to expect the easing cycle to start in September.
Slowdown in goods spending.
The committee should remove the caveat that it will not hesitate to resume the adjustment cycle if necessary.
After increases in February and March, services retreated in April.
Helped by the statistical carry-over, retail sales should be positive in 2Q23.
The Brazilian FX market registers a robust inflow in 2023, as a result of the good performance of the trade segment.
Together, food and gasoline account for virtually all the surprise in today's data.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | June 6, 2023
Resilience labor market.
Industrial production | June 2, 2023
Industrial production should be relatively stable in 2Q23.
The accumulated trade surplus in the first five months of the year is US$ 35.3 billion.
Statistical carry over stands at 2.1% after 1Q23 GDP.
Unemployment rate | May 31, 2023
Growing formal and informal employment.
Stronger primary surplus does not remove the challenge of implementing the new fiscal rule.
The annual growth of outstanding loans went from 7.1% to 6.7% in April, in real terms.
Current Account | May 26, 2023
Our forecast for the current account deficit this year is US$ 35 billion (1.7% of GDP).
May’s IPCA-15 reading substantiates the ongoing disinflation scenario, although core measures continue to run above the inflation target band.
IDAT-Activity advances in April driven by the goods segment.
Positive statistical carry-over for the 2Q23 in retail sales.
Positive statistical carry-over for the 2Q23 in the service sector.
In 12 months, the index reached 4.2% (from 4.7% in March).
Industrial production | May 10, 2023
The statistical carry-over of industrial production is positive for the 2Q23.
The minutes maintained the tone of the statement; we continue to expect the easing cycle to start in October/November.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | May 4, 2023
Resilient labor market.
We still expect the Copom to begin a cautious easing cycle in its October 31/ November 1 meeting, taking the Selic rate to 12.50% by year-end.
Year to date, total flow is positive by US$ 13.5 billion, above previous years.
We have an upward bias in our trade surplus forecast for 2023, currently at US$60 billion.
Unemployment rate | April 28, 2023
Both CAGED and PNAD data showed a more resilient labor market in March.
Copom Cockpit | April 28, 2023
Once more, the committee will likely reinforce the maintenance of its vigilant stance and its perseverance in the disinflation process.
Going forward, the challenge is the implementation of the targeted primary trajectory.
Service setor | April 27, 2023
Gradual deceleration is expected ahead.
New non-earmarked loans decline in March, still dragged by corporate credit.
We forecast IPCA at 6.1% by yearend and at 4.5% in 2024.
Retail sales will likely remain stable in March and April.
Current Account | April 25, 2023
Current account surplus in March.
Industrial production | April 19, 2023
Industrial production will likely advance in March, but the outlook for the year is for a slowdown.
Mixed signs in March.
Service setor | April 14, 2023
Mixed signs in the service sector in January.
Retail sales will likely lose stem throughout the year.
Core inflation measures, both for goods and services, came in slightly below expectations, confirming a gradual disinflation outlook.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | April 6, 2023
Gradual slowdown in formal employment growth, but wages with no signs of retreat.
Year to date, total flow is positive by US$ 12.5 billion.
The trade balance started the year at a strong pace, driven by exports, while imports keep losing strength at the margin.
Going forward, the challenge is the implementation of the targeted primary trajectory.
Unemployment rate | March 31, 2023
Labor market deceleration is likely to continue ahead.
Industrial production | March 28, 2023
Weakness in the manufacturing segment will continue ahead.
Quarterly Inflation Report | March 28, 2022
The Inflation Report shows forecasts that are consistent, in our view, with the Selic rate remaining at 13.75% for an extended period.
Seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate increased by 0.1 p.p. to 3.3%.
Copom Minutes | March 28, 2023
The key message is that monetary policy should be patient and serene, and that a rate cut it is not imminent.
Current Account | March 27, 2022
The flow of investments in the country continues at a consistent pace at the margin.
March‘s IPCA-15 reading substantiates the ongoing disinflation scenario, although core measures continue to run above the inflation target band.
The Copom left the base rate unchanged at 13.75%, and its statement did not bring indications of easing earlier than expected.
Copom Cockpit | March 17, 2023
We expect the committee to keep the Selic rate at 13.75%, with symmetrical risks to inflation.
Unemployment rate | March 17, 2023
January data consolidates the weakening of labor market in progress.
After a strong reading in January, IDAT decelerates in February.
February’s IPCA reading continued to indicate a gradual disinflation outlook, with the headline decelerating in 12 months.
Year to date, total flow is positive by US$ 10 billion.
Economic activity decelerated in the 2H22.
Export prices fall in February.
January primary surplus in line with seasonality.
Unemployment rate | February 28, 2022
Signs of deceleration in the labor market continue.
Seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate increased by 0.1 p.p. to 3.2%.
Current Account | February 24, 2022
We forecast a current account deficit of 2.3% in 2023.
February IPCA-15 rises 0.76% pressured by education readjustments.
Service Sector | February 10, 2023
Deceleration is likely to continue ahead
Retail sales | February 9, 2022
Widespread drop in December
January IPCA continued to indicate a slowdown in the inflation trajectory, with core measures losing strength at the margin.
In 2023, the market registered so far an inflow of US$ 5.2 billion.
Copom Minutes | February 7, 2023
We continue to see upside risks to our year-end 12.5% pa forecast.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | February 7, 2023
IDAT-Employment with lower deceleration and IDAT-Wage still under pressure.
Industrial production | February 3, 2023
Weakness in the industrial production should continue ahead.
Today's meeting places extra uncertainty about the feasibility of rate cuts this year.
Trade Balance | February 1, 2023
Exports start the year on a strong note.
Brazil Review | The Brazilian economy in Jan, 2023
IPCA ends 2022 at 5.8%; IPCA-15 rises 0.55% in January, suggesting upward bias for 2023.
The surplus in 2022 was due to temporary factors or those that will have a smaller impact this year.
Seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate increased by 0.1 p.p. to 3.1%.
Copom Cockpit | January 27, 2023
Copom to indicate still-symmetrical risks to inflation, but with warnings to the fiscal and inflation target outlooks.
Current Account | January 26, 2023
We expect a 2.3% of GDP current account deficit this year.
The IPCA-15 was higher than expected and brought an upward bias to the end-month IPCA print and the year’s forecast.
Unemployment rate | January 19, 2023
The deceleration in labor market will likely continue ahead.
Economy decelerates in the end of the year.
Service Sector | January 12, 2023
Services offered to households should continue to decelerate in the coming months.
Retail sales | January 11, 2023
Weakness in retail sales should continue in the coming months.
IPCA | January 10, 2023
We forecast a 5.7% increase in 2023.
Brazil Review | The Brazilian economy in Dec, 22
The focus now relies on the economic policy signals, especially those related to taxation and public spending.
Industrial production | January 5, 2023
Industrial production may end 4Q22 in negative territory.
IDAT-Employment and Wage | January 5, 2023
Employment growth decelerates again in December.
FX market | January 4, 2023
The FX market posted a net outflow of US$ 12.48 billion in December.
Trade Balance | January 2, 2023
Trade balance ends 2022 with a surplus of US$ 62.3 billion.
Fiscal | December 29, 2022
In 12 months, the consolidated primary surplus reached 1.4% of GDP.
Credit | December 27, 2022
Seasonally adjusted delinquency rose 0.2 p.p. to 3.2%.
IPCA-15 | December 23, 2022
In 12 months, the IPCA-15 decelerated to 5.9%, from 6.2% in November.
Current Account | December 21, 2022
The flow of investments in the country remains robust.
November IDAT - Activity Report
Activity receded 1.4% mom/sa in November.
Quarterly Inflation Report | December 2022
Higher fiscal uncertainty - and the warnings by the BCB about it - suggests a risk that the easing cycle may be postponed.
Service Sector | December 13, 2022
Service sector will likely continue to decelerate ahead.
Copom Minutes | December 13, 2022
The Copom seems unlikely to move rates in the near term, but fiscal excess may lead the committee to revise their plans.
IPCA | December 9, 2022
Data composition remains benign, with the underlying core for services and industrials decelerating from recent peaks.
Retail sales | December 8, 2022
Retail sales should decelerate in the coming months.
Copom | December 7, 2022
The committee maintained the assessment of a symmetrical balance of risks, but acknowledged the increase in fiscal risks.
FX market | December 7, 2022
The FX market registered another month of net inflow.
IDAT - Employment and Wage | December 7, 2022
IDAT - Employment continued to show signs of deceleration in November.
Copom Cockpit | December 2, 2022
Copom to indicate that it still sees a symmetrical balance of risks, but with an additional alert for the fiscal outlook.
Brazil Review | The Brazilian economy in Nov, 22
Fiscal uncertainty lingers; GDP growth decelerated in the 3Q22.
Industrial production | December 2, 2022
Extractive and mining sector drove industrial production growth in October.
Trade Balance | December 1, 2022
Imports are losing momentum at the margin.
GDP | 3Q22
Economic activity should continue to lose momentum in the 4Q22.
Fiscal | November 30, 2022
Primary surplus in October does not diminish the fiscal challenge ahead.
Unemployment rate | November 30, 2022
Labor market presents deceleration signs.
Credit | November 28, 2022
Seasonally adjusted delinquency rose 0.1 p.p. to 3.0% in October.
Current Account | November 25, 2022
Current account deficit worsening at the margin and with a relevant revision in the transport account with a new database.
IPCA-15 | November 24, 2022
November IPCA-15 came in lower than expected, but disinflation will be gradual.
IDAT - Regional
New proprietary index on regional economic activity.
October IDAT - Activity Report
Activity receded 0.8%mom/sa in October.
Service Sector | November 11, 2022
Widespread growth in the quarter.
IPCA | November 10, 2022
After three months of deflation, the IPCA once again registered a positive variation.
History - Macro Vision
We revised our 2022 IPCA forecast to 7.5% from 8.7%
28/06/2022 | We maintain the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%.
Analytics, Big Data & Real Time Economics
February 21, 2022.
February 17, 2022.
Disinflation in 22 with the Selic contractionary
January 14, 2022 | Disinflation will mainly come from regulated prices and tradables, but there are risks.
Fiscal: Why did it improve in 2021
January 12, 2022 | Reaching the fiscal equilibrium still a challenge.
How will industrial supply and demand rebalance?
October 13, 2021 | Demand for industrial goods is set to decline.
Water crisis: what to expect in 2022
September 24, 2021 | In case of rationing, we expect slower growth, accelerating inflation and an increase in interest rates.
IPCA x target deviation and monetary policy
September 08, 2021 | A Selic rate approx. 100 bps above the neutral rate seems consistent with the current deviation of IPCA.
What about the fiscal situation in the states?
September 02, 2021 | States are seeing a temporary improvement, but still have a structural challenge ahead.
Water crisis and IPCA forecast revision
September 01, 2021 | We revised our 2021 inflation forecast to 7.7% from 6.9% previously.
"Precatórios", spending cap & fiscal discipline
August 30, 2021 | Fiscal improvements shouldn’t lead to a permanent deterioration in the fiscal framework.
Formal labor market vs. service inflation
August 16, 2021 | The level of formal employment has fully recovered from the pandemics shock.
July 30, 2021 | The proposal brings Brazil closer to the international standard of corporate taxation.
July 26, 2021 | The proposal affects around 30 million people.
10 FAQs - Reform of Income and Profit Taxes
July 20, 2021 | The proposal is being debated in Congress.
Economies return to their pre-pandemic GDP
June 16, 2021 | When will economies return to their pre-pandemic GDP levels and trends?
Electricity: Rainfall and Rationing Risks
June 02, 2021 | Rationing is still very unlikely (probability under 5%).
We forecast 5% GDP growth in 2021
May 27, 2021 | GDP continues to expand in 2021H1.
IDAT-Wage: no pressure on service inflation
May 06, 2021 | With a partial recovery of the labor market, we do not see demand-led inflationary pressure via wage dynamics.
IDAT - Employment and recovery of the formal labor
May 11, 2021 | We revised our year-end unemployment rate estimate to 12.7%, from 14.3%, seasonally adjusted.
Will EM currencies benefit from high commodity?
April 27, 2021 | International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products.
Breaking down inflation in years of recession
February 01, 2021 | in Brazil, the consumer price index IPCA ended 2020 0.50 p.p. above the inflation target.