Global | Economic Analysis
See here the Macro Vision and Global Scenario Review reports.
Global Scenario Review
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Scenario | May, 2025
More positive global environment with (at least) temporary reduction of current trade tariffs between the U.S. and China and announcement of first trade agreements.
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Scenario | April, 2025
The significant increase in tariffs represents a negative supply shock, with a strong stagflationary impact on the American economy, raising concerns about a global recession.
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Scenario | March, 2025
The more unclear outlook for U.S. economic growth exceptionalism is providing temporary relief to currencies around the globe.
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Scenario | February, 2025
After multiple threats, uncertainty on tariffs will remain high in the short term.
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Scenario | January, 2025
In addition to our usual monthly economic revision, we present main themes and risks for the global economic outlook in 2025.
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Scenario | December, 2024
Less rate cuts in the US, to a still-high 4.00-4.25% range.
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Scenario | November, 2024
Resilient activity, tariffs, fiscal expansion, and immigration restrictions point to higher interest rates
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Scenario | October, 2024
Central banks are increasingly sensitive to economic activity due to labor markets that have already become better adjusted, but there is divergence between countries.
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Scenario | September, 2024
The slowing labor market now has a greater weight in the reaction function of central banks.
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Scenario | August, 2024
5 global themes for 2H24
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Scenario | July, 2024
Inflation in DMs continues to gradually decelerate, an environment that allows for the start of easing cycles, with caution.
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Scenario | June, 2024
Despite the start of the easing cycle by some key central banks, we expect caution to prevail among monetary authorities in developed economies.
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Scenario | May, 2024
We see the U.S. easing cycle starting only in December this year, but the risks are asymmetric in the direction of no cuts whatsoever in 2024.
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Scenario | April, 2024
We now expect the start of interest rate cuts in the U.S. in December this year (from June), and continue to see 3 cuts in 2025.
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Scenario | March, 2024
Recent data postpones monetary easing cycles in developed economies, but fundamentals continue to suggest an improvement.
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Scenario | February, 2024
With strong momentum in the US, we’ve increased our global growth forecasts.
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Scenario | January, 2024
10 themes that we consider most important for the global outlook.
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Scenario | December, 2023
With lower inflation and the recent signaling from the Fed, we now expect easing in the US to start in March.
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Scenario | November, 2023
Despite some relief at the margin, interest rates and the USD should remain under pressure, as activity in the U.S. continues to outperform.
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Scenario | October, 2023
Higher U.S. Treasury rates and oil prices may limit easing prospects and terminal rates in EMs.
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Scenario | September, 2023
U.S. outperformance may be peaking but is likely to continue, sustaining the USD at current levels.
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Scenario | August, 2023
Global central banks made a dovish shift, with DMs signaling that they are close to an end of the tightening cycle.
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Scenario | July, 2023
We expect higher interest rates in the U.S. and in Europe.
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Scenario | June, 2023
DM central banks are in the final phase of hikes, while cuts will soon be discussed in EMs.
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Scenario | May, 2023
Monetary tightening is close to the end, but central banks are still in inflation-fighting mode.
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Scenario | April, 2023
Better growth prospects for China, while the US will likely feel the drag of banking stress (no significant contagion to the rest of the world)
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Scenario | March, 2023
We now expected the interest rate at 5.6% in the U.S and at 4% in the Eurozone.
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Scenario | February, 2023
Inflation deceleration opens space for a Fed pause (at 5.1%), but labor-market strength still poses upside risks.
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Scenario | January, 2023
Inflation has started to recede due to goods prices, but interest rates are likely to remain high for a while.
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Scenario | December, 2022
We see stronger global GDP growth in 2023, but interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.
Macroeconomic Indicator
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US | Core CPI at 0.24% in April, in line
May, 25 | This print did not show signs of the tariff shock yet, but the Fed will likely remain cautious.
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US | Core CPI below expectations in March
Apr, 25 | A good inflation print in March, prior to upside shocks ahead due to tariff.
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US | Core CPI at 0.23% m/m in February
Mar, 25 | Despite the good CPI figures, preliminary estimates of Core PCE point to a high level of 0.27% m/m, which does not allow much relief for the Fed.
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US | Core CPI above expectations in January
Feb, 25 | In 12 months, Core CPI increased to 3.3% from 3.2%.
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US | Core CPI below expectations in December
Jan, 25 | Strong activity and upside inflation risks still indicate a cautious outlook for the Fed, with no cuts this year.
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US | Core CPI close to expectation in November
Dec, 24 | Today’s result reaffirms the likely rate cut at the FOMC December meeting.
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US | Core CPI in line with expected in October
Nov, 24 | AlthoughCore CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with no major surprises.
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US | Core CPI stronger than consensus
Oct, 24 | Although not a game changer for the Fed, this number should be viewed with caution.
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US | Core CPI came in higher than expected
Sep, 24 |We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting in September by 25bps, totaling three cuts this year.
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US | Core CPI remains low
Aug, 24 | We continue to expect the Fed to start cutting in September by 25bps, totaling three cuts this year.
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US | Core CPI below expectations
July, 24 | June inflation print increases the chance of an earlier Fed cut.
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US | Core CPI surprised to the downside
Jun, 24 | Lower inflation helps the Fed to open the door for September cuts.
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US | Core CPI more moderate as we expected
May, 24 | Core CPI in line with our forecast.
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US | Core CPI above expectations with implication
Apr, 24 | Today’s reading also indicates a high Core PCE reading, with our preliminary estimate pointing to 0.33% m/m. This reduces the chance of any Fed cuts on the horizon.
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US | Core CPI close to expected, breakdown mixed
Mar, 24 | CPI data confirms our outlook of only gradual rate cuts from the Fed and a higher terminal rate.
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US | CPI came in as expected, ending 2023 at 3.4%
Jan, 24 |CPI in line with our expectations with Services still decelerating slowly
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US | Core CPI in line with our expectations
Dec,23 | Core CPI in line with expectations does not open room for a dovish Fed pivot.
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US | Lower-than-expected Core CPI due to Services
Nov,23 | We think that the positive inflation composition will lead the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting.
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US | Higher-than-expected Core CPI due to Services
Oct,23 | Core CPI above expectations with pressure from Services still indicates a Fed hike, probably in December
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US | Core CPI above expectations but breakdown ok
Sep,23 | Core CPI above expectations with breakdown ok and perception for the Fed unchanged.
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US | Core CPI maintains the lower pace as expected
Oct,23 | Core CPI keeps the lower pace, breakdown indicates a continued deceleration, which reduces the chance of further Fed hikes ahead.
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US | Core CPI weaker on Airfares
Good CPI breakdown, reducing hawkish risks ahead
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US | Core CPI maintains pace but with a breakdown
Good CPI breakdown allows Fed to remain on hold and reduces risk of more hawk scenarios.
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US | Core CPI maintains the pace
Core CPI maintains the pace with an increase concentrated in used cars, while Services prices were mode moderate.
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US | Core CPI decelerates a bit, led by Shelter
This number indicates Fed could deliver one more hike and then stop
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US | Core CPI maintains a higher pace
Core CPI mantains a higher pace and keeps the Fed on track to two more rate hikes.
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US | Core CPI maintains a moderate pace
Core CPI maintains a moderate pace and opens space for the Fed decelerate its hike pace to 25bps.
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US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in November
Lower than expected inflation increases the chance of a Fed pause in 1Q23.
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US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in October
Decreases in Goods and Services are a indication that inflation could start to decelerate from high levels.
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Pandemic Monitor | September 02, 2021
The Delta wave peaked in most countries, but there are some concerns on less vaccinated countries.
Macro Vision
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Simulating impacts of USxChina tariffs
Brazil could benefit from a redistribution of trade flows after increased US-China tariffs.
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Labor market and impact on inflation in DMs
The rebalancing of the labor market points to lower inflationary pressures down the road, creating room for greater monetary policy easing in developed economies.
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US Dollar: Dominance at Risk?
This is the second in a series of two articles that seek to explain the US dollar's recent strength and future prospects.
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Strong Dollar scenario likely to persist
This is the first in a series of two articles that seek to explain the recent strength of the dollar and prospects for the currency.
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China: A Dual Track Economy
China’s economy has shifted from real estate to manufacturing and infra.
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US Fiscal: still risk-free?
US fiscal is challenging, but a crisis is unlikely in the short term.
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CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters
We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.
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Russia/Ukraine War: Preliminary Analysis
In this report, we present a preliminary analysis of the Russia/Ukraine war on the Brazilian economy.
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Breakdown of global inflation after pandemic
Global inflation: commodities, bottlenecks and, recently, reopening. Core accelerating in some countries, but still below.
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When will economies return to pre-pandemic GDP?
A full GDP recovery will likely be achieved in 2021 in most developed countries, but not until 2022 or later in EMs (ex. Chi
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China Outlook
We forecast GDP at 8.5% in 2021 and at 5,8% in 2022.
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Will EM currencies benefit from high commodity?
International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products.