Global | Economic Analysis
See here the Macro Vision and Global Scenario Review reports.
Global Scenario Review
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Scenario | November, 2023
Despite some relief at the margin, interest rates and the USD should remain under pressure, as activity in the U.S. continues to outperform.
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Scenario | October, 2023
Higher U.S. Treasury rates and oil prices may limit easing prospects and terminal rates in EMs.
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Scenario | September, 2023
U.S. outperformance may be peaking but is likely to continue, sustaining the USD at current levels.
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Scenario | August, 2023
Global central banks made a dovish shift, with DMs signaling that they are close to an end of the tightening cycle.
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Scenario | July, 2023
We expect higher interest rates in the U.S. and in Europe.
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Scenario | June, 2023
DM central banks are in the final phase of hikes, while cuts will soon be discussed in EMs.
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Scenario | May, 2023
Monetary tightening is close to the end, but central banks are still in inflation-fighting mode.
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Scenario | April, 2023
Better growth prospects for China, while the US will likely feel the drag of banking stress (no significant contagion to the rest of the world)
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Scenario | March, 2023
We now expected the interest rate at 5.6% in the U.S and at 4% in the Eurozone.
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Scenario | February, 2023
Inflation deceleration opens space for a Fed pause (at 5.1%), but labor-market strength still poses upside risks.
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Scenario | January, 2023
Inflation has started to recede due to goods prices, but interest rates are likely to remain high for a while.
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Scenario | December, 2022
We see stronger global GDP growth in 2023, but interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.
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Scenario | November, 2022
Challenging scenario: Fed far from pausing, Europe in recession and weak growth in China.
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Scenario | October, 2022
Amid higher rates, gas crisis in Europe and slow recovery in China, we see a (quasi) global recession.
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Scenario | September, 2022
High inflation still calls for interest rates at contractionary levels.
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Scenario | August, 2022
We lowered our growth forecasts for 2022 or 2023 for the US, Europe and China, but interest rates will remain high.
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Scenario | July, 2022
We lowered our global GDP forecast to 2.9% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, with higher risk of a recession in the U.S. and Europe.
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Scenario | June, 2022
We expect the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate to 3.25%-3.50%, in 2022, and to 3.75%-4.00%, in 2023.
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Scenario | May 2022
The war in Ukraine, the outbreak in China and higher interest rates lead to weaker global growth, while the USD gains agains.
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Scenario | April 2022
Global inflation has begun to rise and growth is starting to slow following the war shock (and Omicron in China).
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Scenario | March 2022
The war in Ukraine will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth for DMs.
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Scenario | February 2022
High and persistent inflation will lead to interest rate hikes in the U.S. and in the Eurozone in 2022.
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Scenario | January 2022
We see 4 hikes by the Fed in 2022. The Omicron wave, despite less lethal, poses risks for China and global supply chains.
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Scenario | December 2021
Preliminary evidence suggests limited impacted from omicron strain on activity, and growth will likely remain at robust leve.
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Scenario | November 2021
Interest rate hikes in the US (3 in 2022, given stronger growth and inflation) and China’s slowdown are challenges for EMs.
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Scenario | October 2021
Lower global growth and higher inflation, but we do not see a stagflation scenario.
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Scenario | September 2021
As the Delta variant outbreak peaks, lingering risks to global economic activity are likely to diminish.
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Scenario | August 2021
The outlook for emerging markets worsened, as Delta variant, China growth and U.S. inflation pose relevant risks.
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Scenario | July 2021
Pandemic control will likely consolidate as vaccination progresses further, albeit unevenly in emerging markets.
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Scenario | June 2021
Global recovery continues and sustains commodity prices and emerging market assets, but US inflation brings risks.
Macroeconomic Indicator
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US | Lower-than-expected Core CPI due to Services
We think that the positive inflation composition will lead the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting.
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US | Higher-than-expected Core CPI due to Services
Core CPI above expectations with pressure from Services still indicates a Fed hike, probably in December
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US | Core CPI above expectations but breakdown ok
Core CPI above expectations with breakdown ok and perception for the Fed unchanged.
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US | Core CPI maintains the lower pace as expected
Core CPI keeps the lower pace, breakdown indicates a continued deceleration, which reduces the chance of further Fed hikes ahead.
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US | Core CPI weaker on Airfares
Good CPI breakdown, reducing hawkish risks ahead
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US | Core CPI maintains pace but with a breakdown
Good CPI breakdown allows Fed to remain on hold and reduces risk of more hawk scenarios.
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US | Core CPI maintains the pace
Core CPI maintains the pace with an increase concentrated in used cars, while Services prices were mode moderate.
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US | Core CPI decelerates a bit, led by Shelter
This number indicates Fed could deliver one more hike and then stop
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US | Core CPI maintains a higher pace
Core CPI mantains a higher pace and keeps the Fed on track to two more rate hikes.
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US | Core CPI maintains a moderate pace
Core CPI maintains a moderate pace and opens space for the Fed decelerate its hike pace to 25bps.
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US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in November
Lower than expected inflation increases the chance of a Fed pause in 1Q23.
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US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in October
Decreases in Goods and Services are a indication that inflation could start to decelerate from high levels.
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Pandemic Monitor | September 02, 2021
The Delta wave peaked in most countries, but there are some concerns on less vaccinated countries.
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Pandemic Monitor | August 26, 2021
Scenario in Brazil remains positive. Worldwide, the Delta variant has shown signs of being close to a peak.
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Pandemic Monitor | August 12, 2021
The improvement continues in Brazil, with faster vaccination and fewer new cases. However, Delta concerns remain.
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Pandemic Monitor | August 05, 2021
Southeast Asia has shown a worrying increase of new cases and deaths, due to the Delta strain. In Brazil, the positive trend.
Macro Vision
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CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters
We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.
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Russia/Ukraine War: Preliminary Analysis
In this report, we present a preliminary analysis of the Russia/Ukraine war on the Brazilian economy.
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Breakdown of global inflation after pandemic
Global inflation: commodities, bottlenecks and, recently, reopening. Core accelerating in some countries, but still below.
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When will economies return to pre-pandemic GDP?
A full GDP recovery will likely be achieved in 2021 in most developed countries, but not until 2022 or later in EMs (ex. Chi
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China Outlook
We forecast GDP at 8.5% in 2021 and at 5,8% in 2022.
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Will EM currencies benefit from high commodity?
International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products.