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Global | Economic Analysis

See here the Macro Vision and Global Scenario Review reports.

Global Scenario Review

  • Scenario | June, 2024

    Despite the start of the easing cycle by some key central banks, we expect caution to prevail among monetary authorities in developed economies.

  • Scenario | May, 2024

    We see the U.S. easing cycle starting only in December this year, but the risks are asymmetric in the direction of no cuts whatsoever in 2024.

  • Scenario | April, 2024

    We now expect the start of interest rate cuts in the U.S. in December this year (from June), and continue to see 3 cuts in 2025.

  • Scenario | March, 2024

    Recent data postpones monetary easing cycles in developed economies, but fundamentals continue to suggest an improvement.

  • Scenario | February, 2024

    With strong momentum in the US, we’ve increased our global growth forecasts.

  • Scenario | January, 2024

    10 themes that we consider most important for the global outlook.

  • Scenario | December, 2023

    With lower inflation and the recent signaling from the Fed, we now expect easing in the US to start in March.

  • Scenario | November, 2023

    Despite some relief at the margin, interest rates and the USD should remain under pressure, as activity in the U.S. continues to outperform.

  • Scenario | October, 2023

    Higher U.S. Treasury rates and oil prices may limit easing prospects and terminal rates in EMs.

  • Scenario | September, 2023

    U.S. outperformance may be peaking but is likely to continue, sustaining the USD at current levels.

  • Scenario | August, 2023

    Global central banks made a dovish shift, with DMs signaling that they are close to an end of the tightening cycle.

  • Scenario | July, 2023

    We expect higher interest rates in the U.S. and in Europe.

  • Scenario | June, 2023

    DM central banks are in the final phase of hikes, while cuts will soon be discussed in EMs.

  • Scenario | May, 2023

    Monetary tightening is close to the end, but central banks are still in inflation-fighting mode.

  • Scenario | April, 2023

    Better growth prospects for China, while the US will likely feel the drag of banking stress (no significant contagion to the rest of the world)

  • Scenario | March, 2023

    We now expected the interest rate at 5.6% in the U.S and at 4% in the Eurozone.

  • Scenario | February, 2023

    Inflation deceleration opens space for a Fed pause (at 5.1%), but labor-market strength still poses upside risks.

  • Scenario | January, 2023

    Inflation has started to recede due to goods prices, but interest rates are likely to remain high for a while.

  • Scenario | December, 2022

    We see stronger global GDP growth in 2023, but interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer.

  • Scenario | November, 2022

    Challenging scenario: Fed far from pausing, Europe in recession and weak growth in China.

  • Scenario | October, 2022

    Amid higher rates, gas crisis in Europe and slow recovery in China, we see a (quasi) global recession.

  • Scenario | September, 2022

    High inflation still calls for interest rates at contractionary levels.

  • Scenario | August, 2022

    We lowered our growth forecasts for 2022 or 2023 for the US, Europe and China, but interest rates will remain high.

  • Scenario | July, 2022

    We lowered our global GDP forecast to 2.9% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023, with higher risk of a recession in the U.S. and Europe.

  • Scenario | June, 2022

    We expect the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate to 3.25%-3.50%, in 2022, and to 3.75%-4.00%, in 2023.

  • Scenario | May 2022

    The war in Ukraine, the outbreak in China and higher interest rates lead to weaker global growth, while the USD gains agains.

  • Scenario | April 2022

    Global inflation has begun to rise and growth is starting to slow following the war shock (and Omicron in China).

  • Scenario | March 2022

    The war in Ukraine will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth for DMs.

  • Scenario | February 2022

    High and persistent inflation will lead to interest rate hikes in the U.S. and in the Eurozone in 2022.

  • Scenario | January 2022

    We see 4 hikes by the Fed in 2022. The Omicron wave, despite less lethal, poses risks for China and global supply chains.

Macroeconomic Indicator

  • US |Core CPI surprised to the downside

    Jun, 24 | Lower inflation helps the Fed to open the door for September cuts.

  • US | Core CPI more moderate as we expected

    May, 24 | Core CPI in line with our forecast.

  • US | Core CPI above expectations with implication

    Apr, 24 | Today’s reading also indicates a high Core PCE reading, with our preliminary estimate pointing to 0.33% m/m. This reduces the chance of any Fed cuts on the horizon.

  • US | Core CPI close to expected, breakdown mixed

    Mar, 24 | CPI data confirms our outlook of only gradual rate cuts from the Fed and a higher terminal rate.

  • US | CPI came in as expected, ending 2023 at 3.4%

    Jan, 24 |CPI in line with our expectations with Services still decelerating slowly

  • US | Core CPI in line with our expectations

    Dec,23 | Core CPI in line with expectations does not open room for a dovish Fed pivot.

  • US | Lower-than-expected Core CPI due to Services

    Nov,23 | We think that the positive inflation composition will lead the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the December meeting.

  • US | Higher-than-expected Core CPI due to Services

    Oct,23 | Core CPI above expectations with pressure from Services still indicates a Fed hike, probably in December

  • US | Core CPI above expectations but breakdown ok

    Sep,23 | Core CPI above expectations with breakdown ok and perception for the Fed unchanged.

  • US | Core CPI maintains the lower pace as expected

    Oct,23 | Core CPI keeps the lower pace, breakdown indicates a continued deceleration, which reduces the chance of further Fed hikes ahead.

  • US | Core CPI weaker on Airfares

    Good CPI breakdown, reducing hawkish risks ahead

  • US | Core CPI maintains pace but with a breakdown

    Good CPI breakdown allows Fed to remain on hold and reduces risk of more hawk scenarios.

  • US | Core CPI maintains the pace

    Core CPI maintains the pace with an increase concentrated in used cars, while Services prices were mode moderate.

  • US | Core CPI decelerates a bit, led by Shelter

    This number indicates Fed could deliver one more hike and then stop

  • US | Core CPI maintains a higher pace

    Core CPI mantains a higher pace and keeps the Fed on track to two more rate hikes.

  • US | Core CPI maintains a moderate pace

    Core CPI maintains a moderate pace and opens space for the Fed decelerate its hike pace to 25bps.

  • US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in November

    Lower than expected inflation increases the chance of a Fed pause in 1Q23.

  • US | Lower-than-expected core CPI in October

    Decreases in Goods and Services are a indication that inflation could start to decelerate from high levels.

  • Pandemic Monitor | September 02, 2021

    The Delta wave peaked in most countries, but there are some concerns on less vaccinated countries.

  • Pandemic Monitor | August 26, 2021

    Scenario in Brazil remains positive. Worldwide, the Delta variant has shown signs of being close to a peak.

  • Pandemic Monitor | August 12, 2021

    The improvement continues in Brazil, with faster vaccination and fewer new cases. However, Delta concerns remain.

  • Pandemic Monitor | August 05, 2021

    Southeast Asia has shown a worrying increase of new cases and deaths, due to the Delta strain. In Brazil, the positive trend.

Macro Vision

  • US Dollar: Dominance at Risk?

    This is the second in a series of two articles that seek to explain the US dollar's recent strength and future prospects.

  • Strong Dollar scenario likely to persist

    This is the first in a series of two articles that seek to explain the recent strength of the dollar and prospects for the currency.

  • China: A Dual Track Economy

    China’s economy has shifted from real estate to manufacturing and infra.

  • US Fiscal: still risk-free?

    US fiscal is challenging, but a crisis is unlikely in the short term.

  • CHINA: a deep dive into challenging waters

    We discuss what we view as the main issues, both short- and long-term, for the Chinese economy.

  • Russia/Ukraine War: Preliminary Analysis

    In this report, we present a preliminary analysis of the Russia/Ukraine war on the Brazilian economy.

  • Breakdown of global inflation after pandemic

    Global inflation: commodities, bottlenecks and, recently, reopening. Core accelerating in some countries, but still below.

  • When will economies return to pre-pandemic GDP?

    A full GDP recovery will likely be achieved in 2021 in most developed countries, but not until 2022 or later in EMs (ex. Chi

  • China Outlook

    We forecast GDP at 8.5% in 2021 and at 5,8% in 2022.

  • Will EM currencies benefit from high commodity?

    International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products.