2026/04/14 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, Mexico posted a surplus of USD 6 billion in March, outperforming market expectations for a small surplus (Bloomberg: USD 850 million) and improving relative to the outcome observed a year earlier. On a 12‑month rolling basis, the trade balance has moved close to balance, marking a significant improvement from the USD 2.6bn deficit recorded earlier this year. At the margin, however, the signal is less constructive. Using seasonally adjusted, three‑month annualized figures, the trade balance continues to point to an underlying deterioration, reflecting softer external momentum despite the favorable March print. Breaking down the data, the oil trade balance remained in deficit, reflecting Mexico’s position as a net oil importer, amid declining domestic crude production, the government’s strategy of prioritizing refinery throughput and higher oil prices. In contrast, the non‑oil balance posted a sizeable surplus, driven by strength in manufacturing exports, as well as agriculture and mining. Within trade flows, manufacturing exports continued to expand, although auto exports remain under pressure due to U.S. tariffs, despite ongoing industry efforts to raise USMCA content. On the import side, capital goods imports rebounded modestly, but levels remain weak overall, reinforcing the view of subdued investment dynamics.
Our view: March’s improvement was largely explained by stronger non‑auto manufacturing exports, alongside gains in agriculture and mining. Still, elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions widened the oil trade deficit, offsetting part of the non‑oil strength. Looking ahead, we expect external drivers to lose momentum through 2026, contributing less to GDP growth than in 2025, with domestic demand becoming increasingly critical for the growth outlook.
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