PERU – Solid growth in 2025, supported by domestic demand and investment rebound

 

2026/02/20 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez

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According to the Central Bank, the Peruvian economy grew 3.4% in 2025, above our 3.2% forecast (3.5% in 2024). The expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand, which increased 5.8%, boosted by a rebound in private investment amid record terms-of-trade.

 

In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 3.2% YoY, broadly consistent with the Imacec. Activity during the quarter was boosted by a 3.4% YoY increase in private consumption, supported by the recovery of the labor market, lower inflation, and improved credit conditions. Private investment expanded 10.1% YoY, as stronger imports of capital goods signaled. Exports posted a modest increase (+4% YoY), while imports surged 10.9% YoY, driven by the recovery in domestic demand.

 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy contracted slightly by 0.7% q/q annualized, after nine consecutive quarters of growth. 

 

Our take: Peru’s economic activity remains on track. Leading indicators continue to point to improved momentum ahead. With the latest print, growth carryover for 2026 stands at 0.7% YoY. We project GDP growth of 2.9% for the year, with upside risks if investment momentum and favorable terms-of-trade persist. The next GDP release is expected in mid‑May.