2025/11/17 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
According to the monthly GDP proxy, economic activity expanded by 0.2% MoM (SA) from August to September. As a result, the economy increased by 0.9% QoQ (SA) in 3Q.
Primary sectors were mixed in September: agriculture grew 1.6% MoM (SA) and fishing surged 14.7% MoM, while mining declined by 0.7% MoM. The secondary sector posted positive results, with manufacturing up 0.6% MoM and construction rising 1.3% MoM. Tertiary sectors also contributed positively. If activity remains at September levels through the end of the year, annual GDP growth would be approximately 2.2%. On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 3.7% YoY in September, above the Bloomberg market consensus of 3.3%.
Our Take: Peru’s growth recovery remains on track. Following September’s GDP reading, we estimate the economy grew 3.5% in the third quarter (3.9% in 2Q). The official 3Q GDP figure will be released on Friday. Leading indicators point to sustained investment momentum, supported by gradually accelerating private-sector credit, business confidence firmly in optimistic territory, and double-digit annual growth in capital goods imports. In this context, we expect GDP to grow 3.0% this year and 2.7% next year, the latter with an upside bias.
