2026/05/22 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
According to the Central Bank, Peru’s economy expanded by 3.5% yoy in 1Q26, in line with the market consensus, primarily driven by robust domestic demand (+6.6%), supported by improving labor market conditions, favorable credit dynamics, and elevated terms of trade.
Private investment rose 13.2% in the quarter, reflecting stronger capital goods imports, high copper prices, improving business sentiment, and expectations of a rebound in mining investment. Private consumption remained resilient, growing 3.5%, while public consumption increased 7.4%.
In contrast, the external sector was a drag on growth, with exports rising modestly (+0.8%) amid a sharp increase in imports (+11.4%). Nevertheless, Peru’s external position remains exceptionally strong: the country posted a current account surplus of 4.3% of GDP over the four quarters ending in 1Q26, the highest level since 2006.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP grew 2.4% q/q annualized, marking the twelfth consecutive quarterly expansion.
Our take: Economic activity remains firmly on track, with leading indicators pointing to sustained momentum. Following the latest release, we estimate a 2026 growth carryover of 2.0% yoy and maintain our full-year GDP forecast at 3.1%. While higher oil prices and the risk of a mild El Niño event could pose downside risks, strong macro fundamentals, including favorable terms of trade and resilient domestic demand, should largely offset these pressures. The next GDP release is expected in mid-August.
