2026/06/16 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
Peru’s monthly GDP proxy expanded 3.7% YoY in April, slightly above the Bloomberg median and our call (both at 3.6%). Annual growth was driven by construction, commerce, manufacturing, and services, which outweighed one-off contractions in the mining and hydrocarbons and agricultural sectors.
On a sequential basis, activity increased 0.6% m/m seasonally adjusted, reversing the soft pace seen in previous months.
Elevated growth carryover. The April print confirms that activity expanded 0.8% QoQ (SA) in the rolling quarter, while the 2026 statistical carryover reached 1.9%, providing a solid base for this year’s growth outlook.
External sector data also remained supportive. Total exports surged 51.1% YoY in April, driven by a strong 61% YoY increase in mining exports, particularly copper and gold, reflecting both higher prices and stronger volumes. Meanwhile, imports rose a robust 34% YoY, with continued strength in consumer goods (+31% YoY) and capital goods (+39% YoY), pointing to resilient domestic demand and ongoing investment momentum.
Solid labor market dynamics. The unemployment rate (3MMA) in Metropolitan Lima remained low at 5.3% in the rolling quarter through May, while employment rose 6.7% YoY, equivalent to roughly 368k jobs created over the past 12 months.
Our Take: April activity data reinforces our constructive macro view on Peru. We forecast 2026 GDP growth at 3.3%, supported by favorable terms of trade, improving domestic demand, and solid macro fundamentals. The potential mild El Niño event remains a key risk to monitor. We forecast GDP growth of 3.0% in 2027. May activity data will be released on July 15.