2025/11/24 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
According to the Central Bank, the Peruvian economy grew 3.4% YoY in 3Q25, broadly in line with the monthly proxy Imacec, which posted 3.5%. Activity during the third quarter was driven by a 4.8% YoY increase in private consumption (up from 3.6% in 2Q), supported by the labor market recovery, lower inflation, and improved credit conditions. Private investment rose 11.4% YoY (compared to 9.2% in 2Q), reflecting stronger imports of capital goods, elevated copper prices, improving business sentiment, and the anticipated rebound in mining investment. Exports grew slightly (+1.9% YoY) versus 3Q24, while imports surged 11% YoY, driven by the recovery in domestic demand.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded 1.4% q/q, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth, and 3.5% y/y. In level terms, activity is now surpassing the post-pandemic trend.
Our Take: Peru’s economic activity remains on track. If activity stays at 3Q levels for the rest of the year, GDP growth would reach approximately 3.4%. Following the 3Q print, our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3% is skewed to the upside. For 2026, we project growth of 2.7%, also with upside risks if investment momentum persists. Elevated terms of trade, lower inflation, and declining interest rates will continue to support economic activity. The next GDP release is expected by mid-February.
