2026/03/13 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
At its March monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for a sixth consecutive month, in line with broad market expectations.
Forward guidance remained unchanged and data‑dependent. Notably, the statement once again omitted the reference indicating that the policy rate is very close to the estimated real neutral level, despite the ex‑ante real rate standing at 2.1%, only slightly above the estimated neutral rate of 2.0%.
The assessment of the external backdrop turned more cautious, reflecting heightened global risks stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, amid a global energy shock and increased financial market volatility. That said, the statement mentions that the global growth outlook remains positive, and Peru’s terms of trade are still favorable (though no longer described as “exceptionally favorable,” as in the previous meeting).
Regarding the domestic scenario, the communiqué acknowledged that inflation will be slightly higher than previously expected in the near term, temporarily edging towards the upper half of the 2% ±1% target band, while reiterating that economic activity remains close to its potential level.
Our take: We expect the BCRP to maintain a cautious stance amid a closed output gap, elevated geopolitical tensions, global energy shocks alongside the domestic gas supply disruptions and uncertainty around the timing of upcoming FOMC rate cuts. As a result, we expect the BCRP to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% in the coming meetings. The next Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for April 9.
