2026/06/12 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
At its June Monetary Policy Meeting, the BCRP kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25% for a ninth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. Forward guidance remains explicitly data-dependent, with the Board noting it will closely monitor incoming inflation data and its drivers, adjusting policy if needed.
The communiqué continues to characterize recent inflationary pressures as temporary, driven by energy price shocks, fuel supply disruptions, and adverse weather conditions. The central bank expects these factors to ease over time, with headline and core inflation returning to the target range over the forecast horizon and converging towards the 2% midpoint by 2027.
Regarding activity, leading indicators through May point to solid performance, while expectations remain in optimistic territory.
The external backdrop assessment remains cautious, reflecting elevated global risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy market disruptions, and financial volatility. That said, the global growth outlook remains broadly supportive, and Peru’s terms of trade continue to be favorable.
Overall, the real policy rate is estimated at around 1.35%, still below the BCRP’s neutral level of approximately 2.0%.
Our take: The BCRP has clearly adopted a wait-and-see approach in recent meetings. Lower inflation in May offers only limited relief for the BCRP as the decline was largely driven by food prices, while core inflation continued to trend higher. We expect the BCRP to resume its tightening cycle later this year, delivering a cumulative 50bp in rate hikes by year-end, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%. The next Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for July 09.