2026/01/15 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
The monthly GDP proxy rose by 1.53% YoY in November, well below the Bloomberg consensus of 2.9% YoY. Through November, the indicator accumulated a 3.4% increase. On a sequential basis, using the seasonally adjusted GDP published by INEI as a reference, economic activity fell by 0.4% MoM SA in November, marking its first monthly decline since Q2 2025, when activity momentum was subdued.
From a sectoral perspective, the primary sector contributed negatively to the monthly result. Mining fell 8.45% MoM SA in November, while fishing and agriculture dropped 9.1% MoM SA and 0.69% MoM SA, respectively. Secondary activities were mixed: manufacturing strengthened (+1.1% MoM SA) and construction rose (+3.3% MoM SA), but energy generation declined (-1.55% MoM SA). Services also were mixed, with notable expansion in Restaurants & Hotels (+1% MoM SA), moderate increases in Commerce and Transportation (both +0.4% MoM SA), and a decline in Financial Services (-0.6% MoM SA).
With the November print, the 2025 GDP growth carryover stands at 3%.
Our take: Despite this monthly result, leading indicators—such as rising business confidence, robust formal job creation, and double-digit annual growth in capital goods imports—point to ongoing solid growth momentum. We expect GDP to grow 3.2% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. High copper and gold prices will support the mining sector. The December data will be published on February 15.
