2026/04/06 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez &
Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) decreased by 3.3% YoY in January, a steeper decline than the Bloomberg median (-2.0%). By sector, machinery and equipment decreased by 9.8%, with both imported and domestic components declining. Construction rose by 3.0% YoY, with private and residential components also increasing. Using seasonally adjusted data, investment fell by 1.1% MoM, below market expectations of -0.5%. Machinery and equipment decreased by 1.1% mainly due to transportation equipment, while construction declined by 0.8% due to both residential and non-residential components.
Private consumption increased by 1.5% YoY, below Bloomberg median of +3.0%. On a monthly basis, using seasonally adjusted data, private consumption declined by 1.6%, with domestic goods and services showing contractions of 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. Imported goods drop by 6.8%, following the tax increase on imported goods from countries without trade agreements, which came into effect in January 2026.
Our view: January’s domestic demand data reflected the impact of higher tariffs on imports from non-FTA countries, as well as US tariffs that have weighed on the heavy-vehicle sector. In late March, the Mexican government announced a program to incentivize heavy-vehicle purchases amid declining production and demand. While positive, we believe this measure will not be decisive in reversing the investment trend. Looking ahead, soft capital goods imports suggest private investment is likely to remain subdued. In this context, the recently announced Infrastructure Investment Plan for 2026–2030 poses an upside bias to our activity forecasts for the second half of the year. Private consumption, on the other hand, is expected to continue growing at moderate rates, supported by rising wages and the World Cup. We forecast 2026 GDP growth at 1.5% YoY.
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