2026/07/24 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, the unemployment rate rose to 2.90% (NSA) in June, above both Bloomberg consensus (2.80%) and our forecast (2.69%), and up from 2.76% in May. The increase was mainly driven by new unemployed, that is with an unemployment spell of six months or less, and those with secondary education. In addition, a decline of 241 thousand people in the economically active population contributed to the increase in the unemployment rate. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rose to 2.80%, from 2.73% in May and 2.60% a year earlier.
In annual terms, employment declined by 84 thousand jobs in June, reflecting a loss of 189 thousand formal-sector positions, partly offset by an increase of 105 thousand jobs in the informal sector. The labor force participation rate stood at 58.8%, down from 59.8% a year earlier and still below the pre-pandemic average of 60.2%. The informality rate increased to 55.0%, from 54.8% a year ago, highlighting the continued deterioration in job quality. Meanwhile, the real wage bill grew 3.4% YoY, supported by modest gains in labor income.
Our take: While headline unemployment remains low, a broader set of labor-market indicators points to a gradual loosening of labor-market tightness. Rising informality, lower participation, and softer real wage growth suggest that underlying employment conditions are weakening, implying that slack is starting to build, despite still-favorable headline metrics. Our Phillips curve estimates reinforce this view. Services inflation continues to run above levels consistent with the observed unemployment rate, implying that the effective degree of labor-market slack may be greater than official data suggest (Banxico research papers suggest a NAIRU close to the 3-4% range). In other words, inflation dynamics are behaving as if unemployment were higher than reported, highlighting a growing disconnect between headline labor-market indicators and underlying conditions. We maintain our forecast for the unemployment rate to average 2.7% in 2026.
See details below