MEXICO – Trade deficit widened in February

Mexico posted an unexpected goods trade deficit of USD 462.8 million in February, contrasting with Bloomberg’s consensus for a USD 1,253 mm surplus and weaker than the USD 1,654 mm surplus recorded in February 2025. On a 12-month rolling basis, the deficit widened to USD 2.6 billion from a USD 0.5 bn deficit in January. At the margin, using three-month annualized seasonally adjusted figures, the trade balance showed further deterioration, with the deficit reaching USD 14.1 bn versus USD 12.0 bn in January. Breaking out the data, the oil trade balance remained in deficit (USD 25.6 bn), while the non-oil balance showed a surplus of USD 23.0 bn. This reflects declining domestic oil production and the government's strategy of prioritizing refinery output. Manufacturing exports continued to expand, but capital goods imports remained weak, underscoring subdue investment.

Our view:  February’s trade deficit was largely explained by higher imports of intermediate goods, even as manufacturing exports rebounded from a weak prior month. The increase in intermediate imports suggests stronger prospects for domestic production, but persistent weakness in capital goods highlights structural investment challenges. Looking ahead, expected public investment in the second half of the year could provide support. However, Mexico’s status as a net oil importer leaves the trade balance vulnerable to elevated oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions, potentially extending the deficit into March.

See detailed data below