2025/10/31 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) released its public finance report as of September. On a 12-month rolling basis, the broadest measure of the public balance (PSBR) posted a deficit of 4.2% of GDP through September, while the primary public balance swung to a surplus of 0.7% of GDP. During the first nine months of the year, real revenues rose by 7.0% YoY, supported by higher-than-expected import taxes, VAT revenues, and Pemex oil revenues due to asset transfers. On the other hand, total expenditure rose by 1.0% YoY in real terms, primarily due to social programs, despite contractions in capital investment, except for those directed to Pemex. Finally, net government debt stood at 49.9% of GDP, below the MoF’s 2025 forecast of 52.3%.
Our view:September’s figures indicate that the pace of revenue improvement continues to slow, coming in 2.2% below MoF’s projection for the period. Expenditures reached 99.8% of the budget as of September and 73.5% of the total approved budget for 2025. For the first time, the public finances report included the financial situation with and without support to Pemex, which is useful for better understanding the dynamics. For 2025, we anticipate fiscal consolidation with a nominal deficit of 4.3% of GDP, rising net government debt to 52.3%, and a primary surplus of 0.3%, in a context of lower interest payments compared to the previous year. Despite the measures included in the 2026 budget to increase revenues, such as the increased use of technology in customs and higher taxes on products from countries without a trade agreement with Mexico, we believe additional revenue-enhancing measures may be needed in the future. We also remain cautious regarding the sustainability of continued transfers to Pemex to meet its increasing market debt and bank loan obligations.
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