2026/05/28 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.46% (NSA) in April, below the Bloomberg median (2.69%) but slightly above March’s 2.42%. The marginal increase was concentrated among workers with secondary education and those who voluntarily left their jobs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate declined to 2.57%, from 2.83% in March and 2.64% a year earlier.
In annual terms, employment rose by 704 thousand in April, largely driven by the informal sector. The labor participation rate stood at 59.1%, slightly below 59.4% a year earlier and still under the pre-pandemic average (59.5%). The informality rate increased to 55.2% (from 54.7% YoY), although the broader trend remains downward. Meanwhile, the real wage bill grew 2.8% YoY, reflecting a decline in average weekly hours worked to 40.7 (from 41.4 a year ago).
Our view: Today’s print points to softer underlying labor market conditions. Fewer hours worked are consistent with a weaker activity backdrop and a rising share of informal employment, while declining participation and a shift toward more vulnerable worker segments suggest a deterioration in job quality. Overall, despite still-low unemployment, labor market slack appears to be building at the margin. We maintain our forecast for an average unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2026.
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