2025/10/28 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.98% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in September, above Bloomberg’s market consensus of 2.86% and our forecast of 2.79%. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate was 2.74% in September, up from 2.66% in August and 2.70% a year ago. The increase was mainly driven by the older segment of the population and those with more years of schooling.
Compared to last year, the number of employed individuals increased by 820 thousand in September, with growth primarily from the informal sector, as observed throughout the year. The labor participation rate stood at 59.6%, slightly lower than last year’s rate of 60.0% and the pre-pandemic average for the same month, which was 59.9%. September’s informality rate slightly increased from the previous year, rising to 54.9% from 54.2%, but it continues to trend downward. Regarding wages, the real wage bill rose by 8.6% YoY, driven by a 0.5% YoY increase in the number of employed people and higher real wages during the month (+8.1% YoY), primarily among subordinate and paid workers.
Our view: Looking ahead, we anticipate that job creation will continue to decelerate due to the slowdown in economic activity amid of trade-related policy uncertainty. We forecast an average unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2025. Real wage growth is expected to remain positive, partially supporting private consumption. Global trade policy uncertainty is likely to limit labor demand.
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