2026/06/18 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
In 1Q26, aggregate supply and demand rose 5.0% YoY (NSA), up from 4.6% in 4Q25. Private consumption grew 2.2% YoY, remaining the main contributor to GDP, although moderating from 3.9% in the previous quarter. Public consumption accelerated to 3.4% YoY (from 1.4%), contributing 0.4pp to growth—its highest contribution in two years. Exports extended their expansion for a seventh consecutive quarter, but at a slower pace (1.4% YoY, from 2.1%). Meanwhile, investment contracted 3.5% YoY, marking six consecutive weak quarters.
In seasonally adjusted terms, aggregate demand increased 0.3% QoQ, following 2.3% in the previous quarter. Public consumption and investment were the strongest components, rising 1.6% and 7.9% QoQ, respectively. In contrast, private consumption and investment declined 0.8% and 3.5% QoQ. Exports rose 0.8% QoQ, slowing from 1.1% previously, while imports increased 2.2%, driven by intermediate goods.
Our take: Unlike previous quarters, the latest data in 2Q26 show stronger public demand—both consumption and investment—while net exports deteriorated due to higher imports and slower export growth. Looking ahead, we expect some support from external sources, particularly non-auto manufacturing exports linked to AI-related investment in the U.S., as well as tourism (including World Cup-related effects). Public infrastructure spending should support construction, with gradual spillovers to private investment under the Infrastructure Plan. We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.1%.
See detailed data below