2026/03/23 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez &
According to a survey of commercial companies, real retail sales rose by 5.0% YoY in September, well above Bloomberg’s consensus of 3.4%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales increased 1.0% MoM, surpassing the consensus expectation of +0.2%. Six out of nine subsectors posted sequential gains, led by textiles and apparel up by 4.5%, health care items by 6.6%, and leisure by 3.5%. In contrast, food and beverages, household goods and motor vehicles experienced contractions of -1.2%, -3.0%, and 0.3% MoM, respectively. Consumption fundamentals remain supportive. The real wage bill rose by 15.0% YoY in January, while real consumption credit from commercial banks increased by 5.7% in 2025.
Our take: This data comes from a survey that identifies revenues from companies, which explains the difference from IGAE’s figures that consider value added. The bias of today’s release is positive: quarterly growth annualized accelerated to 7.1% up from +6.1% in the prior quarter, with a statistical carry-over of +3.1% for the year. Strong labor market dynamics and favorable credit conditions should sustain moderately positive momentum in domestic demand. Our 2026 GDP forecast is unchanged at 1.5 %.
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