2025/11/28 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, the unemployment rate stood at 2.61% in non-seasonally adjusted terms in October, below Bloomberg’s market consensus of 2.78% and closer to our forecast of 2.66%. Using seasonally adjusted data, the unemployment rate was 2.60% in October, down from 2.73% in September and up from 2.47% a year ago. The monthly decline was mainly driven by unemployed between three to twelve months.
Compared to last year, the number of employed increased by one million in October, with growth coming solely from the informal sector, as observed throughout the year. The labor participation rate stood at 59.9%, slightly lower than last year’s rate of 60.2% and the pre-pandemic average for the same month, which was 60.1%. October’s informality rate increased on an annual basis, rising to 55.7% from 54.1%, albeit in a declining trend. Regarding wages, the real wage bill rose by 7.1% YoY, driven by a 0.5% YoY increase in the number of employed people and higher real wages during the month (+6.6% YoY).
Our view: Looking ahead, our scenario considers a deceleration in job creation due to the slowdown in economic activity, amid trade-related policy uncertainty and domestic policy challenges. We forecast an average unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2025. Real wage growth is expected to remain positive, partially supporting private consumption. Global trade policy uncertainty is likely to limit labor demand.
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