2025/12/22 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
Economic activity expanded by 1.75% year-on-year in October, above Bloomberg’s market consensus of 0.9%. The September figure was revised upward from 0.65% to 0.74%. After adjusting for calendar effects, total activity grew 1.6%. The positive annual performance reflected mixed sector dynamics: agriculture surged 11.8%, while commerce and services rose 2.5%. These gains were partially offset by declines in industry and mining, which fell by 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively.
On a sequential basis, activity increased 0.98% MoM SA, reversing September’s 0.44% contraction (revised from -0.63%). All subsectors posted monthly gains, with primary activities rising 1.4%, tertiary activities 1.2%, and secondary activities 0.7%. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (SAAR), following a -0.8% contraction in the third quarter, signaling a modest acceleration at the margin.
Our view: October’s data suggests a gradual recovery in Mexican economic activity, particularly after a weak third quarter, though sector performance remains uneven. Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth to gain traction in 2026, supported by improving business sentiment and a resilient external sector. Nevertheless, growth should remain below potential, and we forecast 2026 GDP at 1.5%, after a 0.3% expansion.