2026/01/23 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
Mexico’s economic activity (IGAE) contracted 0.08% YoY in November, below Bloomberg market consensus of 1.15%. October figure was revised slightly upward from 1.75% to 1.8%. After adjusting for calendar effects, total activity grew 1.1% YoY (October at 1.7%). At the margin, activity decreased 0.2% MoM/SA, driven mainly by a fall in agriculture and services (-7% and -0.4% respectively), partially offset by secondary activities that posted a 0.6% increase (led by a 1.6% rise in Construction).
Our take: November’s data suggests that the gradual recovery in Mexican economic activity will be challenging, where it would be key to monitor the performance across sectors. Friday next week 4QGDP will be released. Looking ahead, we expect GDP growth to gain traction in 2026, supported by improving business sentiment and a resilient external sector. Nevertheless, growth should remain below potential, and we forecast 2026 GDP at 1.5%, after a 0.3% expansion this year.
