2026/06/25 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to INEGI, the unemployment rate rose to 2.76% (NSA) in May, above both Bloomberg consensus and our forecast (2.60%) and higher than April’s 2.46%. The increase was mainly driven by individuals aged 25–44 with mid to upper-secondary education. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rose to 2.70%, from 2.56% in April and 2.69% a year earlier.
In annual terms, employment increased by 438 thousand in May, largely driven by the informal sector. The labor force participation rate stood at 59.1%, slightly below 59.5% a year earlier and still below the pre-pandemic average (60.2%). The informality rate edged up to 55.2% (from 54.9% a year ago), suggesting a pause in the previous downward trend. Meanwhile, the real wage bill grew 2.9% YoY, reflecting a moderation in employment gains.
Our take: The latest data point to softer underlying labor market conditions. Rising informality, declining participation, and moderate real wage growth suggest a gradual deterioration in labor quality. Overall, despite still-low unemployment levels, labor market slack appears to be building at the margin. We maintain our projection for an average unemployment rate of 2.7% in 2026.
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