2026/07/06 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) grew 5.9% YoY in April, above the Bloomberg median (+4.2%), with the prior print revised slightly higher (-2.4% vs. -2.6%). By component, machinery and equipment rose 1.3% YoY due to the imported component and despite the contraction in the domestic segment. Construction grew 10.1% YoY, driven by a broad based expansion, mainly in the private sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, investment rose 4.0% m/m, above expectations (+3.0%). Machinery and equipment expanded 2.0% m/m due to the imported component, while construction grew 6.5% m/m, led by strong performance in residential activity.
Private consumption increased 2.1% YoY in April, below the Bloomberg median (+2.6%). On a sequential basis (SA), it rose 0.1% m/m following a strong expansion in March. At a more granular level, domestic goods services grew 1.1%, while services contracted 0.1% m/m. Imported goods also contracted 1.5% m/m, following two expansions in the previous two months.
Our view: April data point to a recovery in domestic demand in 2Q, following a mix of policy-related and transitory shocks. High-frequency indicators suggest that the positive performance continued in the quarter. Administrative records show light vehicle sales rising 2.7% YoY in May and 3.7% in June (12MMA), pointing to continued resilience in durable consumption. In addition, capital goods imports improved in May, which—if sustained—could signal a floor in the investment cycle.
On policy, the recently announced 2026–2030 Infrastructure Investment Plan introduces upside risks to activity in 2H26 through improved execution and greater pipeline visibility, though the impact should be gradual. Private consumption is likely to grow at a moderate pace, supported by real wage gains and temporary demand tailwinds linked to the mid-year World Cup. Overall, we maintain a cautious macro-outlook, with growth constrained by still weak domestic demand, limited fiscal space, and persistent external uncertainty. We forecast GDP growth of 1.1% YoY in 2026.
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