2026/06/11 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
Industrial production rose 2.3% YoY in April, well above Bloomberg’s median (-0.6%) and our forecast (-1.1%). The upside surprise was driven by construction (+10.4% YoY), particularly in edification, a segment closely linked to private investment, and mining (+3.4%), supported by services related to the sector, which are closely tied to investment activity in mining. In contrast, utilities (-0.2% YoY) and manufacturing (0.0%) remained broadly flat.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, IP increased 2.1% MoM, significantly above our expectation (+0.2%) and consensus (+0.4%). Gains were led by construction (+7.6% MoM) and manufacturing (+1.2%) with 12 of 21 manufacturing subsectors expanded. Meanwhile, mining declined 0.7% MoM on a broad-based basis and utilities fell 0.3%, extending their weak trend.
Our take: The data provide a strong start to 2Q, with construction driving the upside—particularly notable given the sector has been lagging for an extended period. The strength in private construction came earlier than expected, likely explaining the magnitude of the surprise. That said, we remain cautious about extrapolating this print into a sustained trend, as it may partly reflect short-term dynamics. On a quarterly basis, industrial production now points to positive contributions from construction, mining, and manufacturing. Looking ahead, we expect momentum to strengthen in 2H26, supported by public infrastructure spending in construction and a gradual recovery in manufacturing, contingent on an easing in trade uncertainty. We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 1.1%.
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