2026/06/23 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
Economic activity grew 2.3% YoY in April, above Bloomberg consensus (1.8%) and our forecast (2.0%). After calendar adjustments, activity increased 2.5%, reflecting a broad-based expansion across industry (2.2%, after three consecutive contractions), services (2.6%, with 12 of 14 subsectors expanding), and agriculture (4.4%).
In seasonally adjusted terms, activity rose 1.2% MoM, outperforming both the IGAE nowcast (+1.0%) and consensus (+0.7%). Industrial production increased 2.1% MoM, driven by rebounds in construction and manufacturing, contributing 0.7pp to growth—the largest contribution since March 2021. Services grew 0.7% MoM, with gains across most subsectors, while primary activities declined 0.4% following a strong March print.
Our view: The data point to a rebound at the start of 2Q26, with QoQ/SAAR at 1.2% and a carry-over of 1.4%. However, we remain cautious about extrapolating this strength, as it may partly reflect temporary factors. Looking ahead, we expect momentum to strengthen in 2H26, supported by public infrastructure spending and a gradual recovery in manufacturing, contingent on easing trade uncertainty. We maintain our 2026 GDP forecast at 1.1%.
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