2026/02/23 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
INEGI released the 2025 national accounts figures, showing that last year’s GDP expanded by 0.6%. This figure represents the fourth consecutive year of activity deceleration. By sector, annual growth was driven by agriculture, which grew 4.2%, and tertiary activities, which increased 1.3%. Within the latter category, only wholesale trade, restaurants and hotels, and other services posted negative rates (-4.5%, -3.0%, and -1.0%, respectively), while the rest of the activities contributed positively. In contrast, secondary activities fell 1.3% in 2025, with all subsectors contracting: Mining -6.5%; Utilities -0.3%; Construction -1%; Manufacturing -0.5%. The statistical carryover for 2026 stands at 0.8%.
At the margin, there are signs of a modest recovery in activity. 4Q growth reached 0.9% QoQ/SA, slightly above market expectations and showing stronger momentum relative to the previous quarters of the year (+0.3%, +0.5%, and +0.1% in 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, respectively). By sector, fourth‑quarter growth was supported by a 0.9% expansion in both secondary and tertiary activities, while primary activities contracted 1.4%. Likewise, the IGAE registered an annual increase of 3.3% in December, above the market consensus of 2.6%, and grew 0.4% MoM (SA), also exceeding expectations of 0.2%. By component, primary activities rose 6.5%, while secondary and tertiary activities increased 0.2% on a monthly basis.
Our take: In our view, the National Accounts data reflect somewhat stronger momentum at the margin for the Mexican economy, particularly considering that both secondary and tertiary activities posted positive rates. This is a key pillar for the outlook of a gradual activity recovery. However, uncertainty related to the USMCA renegotiation, the recent surge in narco‑related violence threatening potential gains from the FIFA World Cup, and still‑weak investment prospects (given that the recently announced investment plan still lacks crucial details to gauge its impact) are all factors that could hinder the recovery.
