2026/03/03 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) released its public finance report for January. On a 12-month rolling basis, the broadest measure of the public balance (PSBR) posted a deficit of 4.4% of GDP in January. Real revenues rose by 10.2% YoY, 3.0% higher than the forecast for the period, supported by oil revenues and income taxes. On the other hand, total real expenditure increased by 12.3% YoY, primarily due to administrative branches and social programs, despite contractions in capital investment. Finally, net government debt stood at 49.6% of GDP, below the MoF’s 2026 forecast of 52.3%.
Our view: January’s figures indicate that improvements in tax administration and higher incomes for Pemex supported revenues at the beginning of the year. Expenditures reached 8.3% of the approved budget for 2026, with a decrease in public investment preceding the announcement of the Infrastructure Investment Plan for 2026–2030. This plan is not included in the current budget and is projected to allocate an additional 2% of GDP to sectors such as energy, railways, highways, ports, health, water, education, and airports. In the past, similar announcements were only partially executed. We are awaiting additional details on the plan to assess its impact on our forecasts – given natural lags in capex implementation, reaching the full 2% in 2026 seems ambitious. Finally, at the beginning of April, the MoF will release the 2027 preliminary budget, which will face challenges due to limited room for continued tightening.
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