2025/10/23 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to a survey of commercial companies, real retail sales grew by 2.4% YoY in August, slightly below Bloomberg’s consensus of 2.6%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales increased sequentially by 0.6% MoM SA, surpassing the consensus expectation of 0.2% growth. Five out of nine subsectors rose sequentially in August, with textiles and apparel up by 1.8%, health care items by 1.1%, and household goods and computers by 2.7%. However, internet sales, food and beverages, and supermarkets, and department stores experienced contractions of -4.9%, -0.4%, and -0.1% MoM, respectively. We continue to identify positive factors for consumption, despite a slowdown compared to the beginning of the year. The real wage bill rose by 1.4% YoY, while real consumption credit from commercial banks and remittances in MXN increased by 10.7% and 1.6%, respectively.
Our take: This data comes from a survey that identifies revenues from companies, which explains the difference from IGAE’s figures that consider value added. Today’s results have a positive bias, with the QoQ/SAAR at 2.9% (down from +3.4% in the previous quarter) and a statistical carry-over of +2.2% for the year. Due to resilient consumption determinants, such as the growing real wage bill and historically high consumer confidence, we anticipate the sector will remain slightly positive in 2025. Additionally, we expect private consumption and net exports to be the main drivers of GDP growth this year. We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.
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