2026/01/09 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
Industrial production (IP) fell by 0.8% YoY in November, a smaller decline versus Bloomberg’s market consensus of -1.2%. Again, the annual figures by sector showed mixed results, with Mining and Manufacturing falling by 1.0% and 2.2% respectively, in contrast with construction rising by 3.7%. Using seasonally adjusted figures, IP increased by 0.6% MoM, building on the 0.7% of October, and performing better than the consensus of 0.1%. This positive sequential performance was driven by Manufacturing (+0.5%) and Construction (+1.6%), except Mining and Utilities that posted flat sequential variations. In the moving quarter ending in November, overall Industrial Production rose by 0.3% QoQ/SAAR, the first positive result since 2Q25, with Mining increasing by 9.5% (-3.5% in October), but with declines in Manufacturing (-1.8%; -3.6% in October) and Construction (-1.8%; -10.4% in October).
Our take: Today’s data continues to show positive signs for a gradual recovery for industrial production, especially considering the acceleration at the margin. As one of the three host countries, we also expect a positive, albeit modest, impact from the 2026 World Cup on both consumption and investment in Mexico. Looking ahead, we anticipate GDP to gain momentum in 2026 where we forecast a 1.5% growth, although it will remain below potential.
