2026/07/27 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
Mexico recorded a USD 4.1 bn trade surplus in June, above market expectations (Bloomberg: USD 2.8 bn) and significantly higher than the USD 514mn surplus recorded a year earlier. On a 12-month rolling basis, the trade balance remained firmly in surplus at USD 9.2bn. At the margin, external-sector momentum continues to strengthen, with seasonally adjusted three-month annualized figures pointing to a sizeable surplus and suggesting a rebound in trade activity following a soft start to the year.
By component, the oil balance remained in deficit, reflecting Mexico’s status as a net energy importer amid declining crude production, an ongoing policy focus on domestic refining, and higher international oil prices. In contrast, the non-oil balance posted another robust surplus, supported by broad-based manufacturing exports. While the automotive sector continues to face headwinds from U.S. tariffs and the transition toward higher USMCA regional-content requirements, non-auto manufacturing exports remained resilient. On the import side, capital goods purchases modestly rebounded in June but continue to trend at subdued levels, consistent with weak investment dynamics and soft domestic demand.
Our view: June trade data reinforce the view that external demand remains the primary source of support for the Mexican economy. Export performance continues to be driven by computers, electronics, and other sectors benefiting from robust AI-related investment in the U.S., which more than offsets the drag from tariffs on automotive trade. The third round of U.S.-Mexico bilateral talks under the USMCA review process—and the next round scheduled for September in Washington—highlight the growing importance of the agreement’s future architecture. In our view, the key question is no longer whether the USMCA will endure, but rather how a revised framework could reshape regional supply chains, investment decisions, and trade flows across North America in the years ahead.
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