2026/04/30 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
According to DANE’s March labor market data, the national unemployment rate fell to 8.8%, down 0.8 pp year over year, while the urban unemployment rate stood at 9.4%, broadly stable year over year. The urban unemployment rate came in above the Bloomberg median of 9.0% and our 8.8% call. Total employment increased by 2.7% YoY in March (unchanged from February), while the labor force rose by 1.8% YoY (1.4% previously). The participation rate increased by 0.3 pp from March 2025 to 65%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national unemployment rate declined to 8.3% (8.4% in the previous month), while the urban unemployment rate rose to 9.0% (8.5% in February), remaining well below BanRep’s NAIRU estimate of 9.7%. In 1Q26, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable from 4Q25 at 8.5%. Sequentially, employment rose by 0.2% MoM/SA from February to March, and increased 0.5% between 4Q25 and 1Q26.
Private salaried posts were the main job creator in 1Q26. During 1Q26, employment increased 2.3% YoY (3.6% in 4Q25). The annual increase was pulled up by private salaried posts (+3.0% in 1Q26; +5.2% in 4Q25), while self-employment increased by 1.9% YoY (+2.2% in 4Q25), and public sector jobs increased by 1.0% YoY, stable from 4Q25. In 1Q26, financial and insurance activities, the IT sector and public administration were key job drivers, while real estate shed jobs.
Our take: The sharp minimum wage hike, tighter financial conditions, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty are likely to weigh on growth and push average unemployment up to 10.2% this year.