2026/02/18 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade deficit in December rose to USD 1.2 billion, up by USD 0.3 billion with respect to December 2024. The trade deficit came in line with the Bloomberg median and our call. At the margin, our seasonal adjustment shows the trade deficit at USD 17.6 billion (annualized; USD 17.3 billion recorded in 3Q25). Total imports (FOB) rose by 7.7% YoY in December (+1.2% in November); boosted by manufacturing and agricultural imports. Exports increased by 1.3% YoY in December, with commodities still in a weak trend. In 2025, the trade deficit came in at USD 16.4 billion, widening from the USD 10.8 billion recorded in 2024.
Total imports (FOB) increased 10.3% YoY in 2025, after the 1.5% YoY rise in 2024. Over the year, imports were driven by capital goods for agriculture (+23.6% YoY) and consumption goods (+21.9% YoY), but offset by declines in fuels (-6.3% YoY) and transport equipment imports (-1.2% YoY). During the final quarter of 2025, imports grew 8.2% YoY (+14.6% in 3Q25 and +7.6% in 2Q25). At the margin, we estimate imports fell by 3.0% QoQ/saar, below the +11.5% QoQ/saar registered in 3Q25 (+28.5% QoQ/saar in 2025). The US accounted for 22.8% of the total imports in 2025 (25.7% in 2024).
In 2025, exports increased 1.3% YoY, dragged by commodities. Over the year, exports were driven by coffee (+70.6% YoY) and agricultural exports (+33.2% YoY), but offset by declines in coal (-31% YoY) and oil exports (-17% YoY). During the final quarter of 2025, exports fell 0.4% YoY (+2.6% YoY in 3Q25; -2.2% YoY in 2Q25). At the margin, exports dropped by 5.7% QoQ/saar during the final quarter (+25.2% in 3Q25). The US accounted for 29.6% of total exports in 2025, rising from 28.9% YoY registered in 2024.
Our View: Strong domestic demand continues to fuel imports, while persistently low oil prices weigh on exports. As a result, we believe the current account deficit widened from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025. For 2026, we forecast a CAD of 3.2% of GDP.