2026/07/21 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The goods trade deficit increased to USD 1.2 billion in May, USD 0.2 billion higher than a year ago, in line with the Bloomberg median (USD 1.2 billion) and above our call (USD 0.9 billion). Total imports (FOB) increased by 10.5% YoY (+16.2% in the previous month), driven by fuels (35.2% YoY), manufacturing (+8.2% YoY) and agricultural imports (+2.7% YoY). Meanwhile, exports rose by 19.2% YoY (+11.5% in the previous month). As a result, the 12-month rolling trade deficit stands at USD 16.3 billion (USD 16.4 billion in 2025; USD 10.8 billion in 2024).
Durable consumer goods remain a key driver of import strength. The 10.5% YoY increase was boosted by fuels (+43.5% YoY), durable consumption goods (+33.9% YoY) and capital goods for transport equipment (+10.1% YoY). In the rolling quarter ending May, imports increased 12.7% YoY (+10.2% YoY in 1Q26). Imports excluding fuels and transport equipment rose by 7.2% from May last year. At the margin, we estimate imports increased 20.2% QoQ/saar (+11.1% in 1Q26). As of May, imports from the US accounted for 22.6% of total (23% in 2025).
Exports continue to recover. Exports in May grew 19.2% YoY (+11.5% in April). The outcome was driven mainly by oil exports, which surged 32.4% YoY ( 72% YoY in April), while other traditional exports such as coffee and coal declined by -3.6% YoY each. Oil exports benefited merely from price gains, as exported barrels dropped by 18.1% YoY down to 11.3 million, the lowest record since August 2025. In net traditional exports grew 15.2% YoY. Meanwhile, non-traditional exports expanded 22.7% YoY, despite shipments to Ecuador falling -54% YoY (18.5% YoY in April and -37.1% on the YTD). At the margin, we estimate total exports increased 43.8% QoQ/saar (+61.2% in 1Q26). As of May, exports to the US accounted for 29.3% of total (29.6% in 2025).
Our Take: Rising oil prices and robust non-traditional exports are driving a recovery in exports, limiting the trade deficit. At the same time, resilient domestic demand—especially for consumer goods—is boosting imports and preventing a more significant narrowing of the deficit.