2026/06/22 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
Abelardo De La Espriella won in a tighter than expected runoff and record turnout. With 26.34 million ballots cast and 99.9% of votes counted, Abelardo De La Espriella (independent) secured 49.66%, slightly below the June poll average (50.7%), totaling 12.95 million votes (10.36 million in the first round). Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the governing coalition, obtained 48.70%, surpassing the 44% average in the June surveys, with a total of 12.70 million votes (9.7 million in the first round). Meanwhile, the blank vote stood at 1.6%, well below the 5% in the June poll average. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the presidency with 11.28 million votes (50.4% of ballots), compared to 10.58 million votes (47.3%) obtained by Rodolfo Hernández.
Historical participation. Turnout reached 63.6%, notably higher than the 57.9% observed in the first round and the 57.7% recorded in the 2022 run-off, in a context where voting is voluntary. President Petro’s mandate concludes on August 7, 2026. The next step is the "scrutiny confirmation," which could take 2-4 days and usually presents a difference below 0.1%.
The economic proposals of the next government. Starting with the ambitious goal of 5% annual GDP growth, De la Espriella proposes a strategy centered on fiscal consolidation via expenditure cuts, strengthening the fiscal rule, and reducing the size of the state, alongside a pro-investment tax reform that lowers corporate burdens, removes distortionary taxes (including wealth taxes), and focuses on improving compliance through Tax Office (DIAN) modernization rather than increasing rates. In the energy sector, he supports reopening and expanding hydrocarbons—explicitly including fracking—arguing this is essential to restore fiscal revenues and growth, albeit under existing environmental regulations.
The upcoming appointments, particularly around the Ministry of Finance. The president’s influence on economic policy seems anchored in a technocratic core that includes vice president elect José Manuel Restrepo (former Minister of Finance and Trade), Miguel Gómez (Fasecolda president and former dean), and Andrés Barreto (former head of the Superintendency of Industry and Commerce). Some economists reported by the media being considered for the MoF are Ana Fernanda Maiguashca, María Fernanda Suárez, Bibiana Taboada, and Carolina Soto. The appointment will likely be announced early, following the Chilean precedent, to anchor expectations and reduce market volatility.
The challenges for the incoming economic team. The new Minister of Finance will need to maintain close engagement with multilateral institutions, while simultaneously preparing and presenting the 2027 budget bill to Congress in 2H26 and discussing the Competences bill, under tight fiscal constraints. Additional pressures stem from the potential fiscal costs associated with El Niño-related contingencies, which may require supplementary budget allocations. Managing the persistent fuel price deficit will remain a key operational priority, particularly given its implications for the fiscal accounts and inflation dynamics. In parallel, the team will have to assess the realism of the COP 30 trillion tax reform assumption embedded in the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP). Finally, the fiscal outlook will hinge importantly on the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the pension reform, which could materially alter medium-term liabilities and thus require a recalibration of fiscal scenarios.
MoF in monetary policy decisions. In line with Colombia's institutional framework, the new Minister of Finance votes in monetary policy decisions upon taking office in August, implying that the first monetary policy decision under the new administration would take place in September. The current Minister, Germán Ávila, has consistently voted for interest rate cuts during 2026; however, markets price in new hikes. Going forward, the Board will continue to assess inflation dynamics driven by domestic demand conditions, oil prices volatility, weather-related supply shocks, fiscal policy, and tighter external financial conditions. Importantly, according to a precautionary measure by the Council of State, the participation of the MoF in Board decisions is not mandatory, while the Court reviews the final ruling on the related legal challenges.
While the runoff result was broadly in line with market expectations, Colombian assets are likely to respond positively to the confirmation of a shift toward pro-growth policies, particularly expectations of oil exploration reactivation. The path toward fiscal consolidation remains challenging. Key policy tests for De La Espriella will center on fiscal adjustment and security.