2026/05/11 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
Inflation crept up further in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.78% MoM in April (in line with March), compared to the Bloomberg market consensus of 0.74% and our 0.77% call. The main positive contributors in the month were food prices (+1.5% MoM; +29 bps), housing and utilities (+0.7% MoM; +22 bps), and transport (+0.8% MoM; +11 bps). Consumer prices excluding food rose by 0.61% MoM (+0.56% one year earlier), while inflation excluding food and energy increased by 0.54% MoM (+0.57% one year earlier). On an annual basis, headline inflation increased by 11 bps from March to 5.68%, while core inflation fell by 4 bps to 6.28%.
Sequential inflation pressures remain elevated. Non-durable goods inflation (mainly food) came in at 4.3% YoY (+41bps from the previous month). Meanwhile, energy inflation remained in negative territory, but increased by 83 bps to -1.8% YoY, boosted by fuel and gas prices. Amid favorable currency dynamics, durable goods inflation fell by 33 bps to 0.37%. Services inflation fell mildly by 4bps to 7.3% YoY (9.5% peak in September 2023), reflecting indexation effects after the minimum wage hike. At the margin, we estimate that inflation accumulated in the quarter was 6.8% (SA, annualized; 3.8% in 4Q25). Core inflation rose to 7.7% from 5.7% in 4Q25 (SA annualized).
Our take: The government announced a new increase in fuel prices in May, which is expected to contribute 7 bps to May’s inflation print. Thus, our preliminary estimate for May’s monthly inflation, scheduled for release on June 5, ranges between 0.4% and 0.5%, resulting in an annual CPI print between 5.8% and 5.9%. Our baseline scenario puts the YE26 inflation at 7.0% (analyst survey: 6.3% and BanRep’s staff: 6.4%). With inflation well above the target, we expect BanRep to resume the hiking cycle at the June meeting, with the policy rate reaching 12.50% by year-end.