2026/03/09 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The headline inflation print for February came in somewhat below consensus. Consumer prices rose by 1.08% MoM in February (1.14% one year ago), below the Bloomberg market consensus of 1.27%, while broadly in line with our 1.07% call. The main positive contributors in the month were food prices (+1.3% MoM; +24bps); education (+5.64%; +23bps) and hotels and restaurants (+1.4% MoM; +16bps). Rents added 12.4 bps to overall inflation. Consumer prices excluding food rose by 1.03% (+1.26% one year earlier), while inflation excluding food and energy increased by 1.31% MoM (+1.18% one year ago). On an annual basis, headline inflation fell by 6bps from January to 5.29%, while core inflation increased by 14bps to 6.08%, the highest level since September 2024. Meanwhile, services inflation returned above the 7% threshold.
Services rebound, while energy prices continue to decline, for now. Non‑durable goods inflation (mainly food) came in at 3.65% YoY (-44bps from the previous month). Meanwhile, energy inflation fell 357bps to -2.7% YoY. Even with exchange rate appreciation, durable goods inflation ticked up 21bps to 0.7% YoY. Services inflation rose by 17bps to 7.0% YoY (9.51% peak in September 2023), reflecting indexation pressures following the minimum wage increase. At the margin, we estimate inflation accumulated in the quarter reached 5.4% (SA, annualized, +4.4% in 4Q25). Core inflation rose to 7.2%, up from 6.4% in 4Q25 (SA, annualized).
Our take: Our preliminary estimate for March’s monthly inflation, scheduled for release on April 9, ranges between 0.65% and 0.75%, resulting in the annual CPI print rising to 5.5%. The government’s fuel price reduction plan should help cap inflation in March; however, maintaining this adjustment over subsequent months will be challenging if oil prices stay pressured. Our latest baseline scenario saw a YE26 CPI of 6.7% (analyst survey & BanRep’s staff: 6.3%). We see BanRep continuing the rate hike cycle with a 75bps hike in March. Our forecast envisages the policy rate ending this year at 12%.