2026/03/19 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade deficit rose to USD 1.3 billion in January, broadly stable relative to January 2025, and in line with the Bloomberg market consensus and our call. Total imports (FOB) increased by 10.4% YoY (+7.7% YoY in the previous month), driven by manufacturing and agricultural goods, partly contained by lower fuel imports. Meanwhile, exports rose by 12.6% YoY (+1.4% in the previous month), although commodity exports remain weak. As a result, the 12‑month rolling trade deficit stands at USD 16.4 billion (stable vs. 2025; USD 10.8 billion in 2024).
Consumer goods continue to drive import growth. The 10.4% YoY increase was boosted by transport goods (+56.6% YoY), durable consumption goods (+45.2% YoY) and non-durable consumption goods (+26% YoY), while partially contained by fuels (-31.3% YoY). In the rolling quarter ending in January, imports increased 6.3% (+8.2% in 4Q25). Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment rose by 9.4% from January last year. At the margin, we estimate imports fell 3.8% QoQ/saar (-1.0% in 4Q25). As of January, imports from the US accounted for 20.8% of total (23% in 2025).
Exports edged up despite weak commodity performance. Exports increased by 12.6% YoY (+1.4% YoY in December 2025). This positive outcome was driven by coffee and non-traditional exports, which grew at a pace of 33.5% and 23%, respectively (+14.5% and 18.6% in December). Similarly, coal exports showed a significant recovery and grew 11% YoY (-49.5% one year ago). In contrast, unfavorable price effects dragged down oil exports, which dropped by 10.3% (-22.1% in December), marking 12 consecutive months of contraction. In the quarter ending January, exports increased 3.5% YoY (-0.4% in 4Q25). At the margin, we estimate exports grew by 16.6% QoQ/saar (-5.2% in 4Q25). As of January, exports to the US accounted for 31.9% of the total (29.6% in 2025).
Our View: Domestic demand remains resilient and supports short-term import dynamics, while exports remain constrained by weak commodity fundamentals. As a result, we anticipate the current account deficit to increase from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026, albeit with a downside bias due to a narrowing trade deficit relative to last year (amid higher oil prices) and softer remittances.