2025/12/09 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
A trade surplus of USD 1.9 billion was recorded in November, above our call of USD 1.5 billion. As a result, the rolling-12m trade balance reached USD 19.5 billion (USD 21 billion in 2024). The annualized quarterly trade balance sits at a higher USD 23 billion (USD 25 billion cycle peak during late 2024) as mining exports rebound. Exports grew 8.2% year-on-year, boosted by the 13% mining gain. Gold exports reached a historical high of USD427 million, almost three times lithium exports in the month (USD167 million). On the import side, total imports increased by only 0.6% YoY, with the 22% capital goods increase offset by a 3.7% consumer goods drop and still shrinking energy imports. Sequentially, exports increased 28% QoQ/SAAR, while imports rose by a milder 5% QoQ/SAAR.
Our Take: Elevated terms-of-trade will sustain a large trade surplus going forward, offsetting the gradual recovery of domestic demand. We hold a downside bias to our 2.8% of GDP current account deficit forecast for the year (1.5% in 2024). The BCCh will publish December’s trade data on January 9.
