2026/07/07 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
During the final month of 2Q26, upbeat mining and manufacturing exports led to a large trade surplus of USD 3.3 billion (Itaú: USD 3.1 billion), more than double the surplus recorded one year earlier. The YTD surplus sits at USD 17.3 billion (9% of GDP), significantly larger than the USD 11.6 billion registered in 1H25. As a result, the rolling 12-month trade balance reached USD 29.5 billion (USD 23.8 in 2025; USD 20.8 billion in 2024). The annualized quarterly trade balance sits at a higher USD 31 billion as mining exports rebound and capital goods imports lose steam. Total exports grew 25.1% year-on-year in June, supported by similar gains in mining and manufacturing (chemicals in particular). In annual terms, gold exports more than doubled, while lithium sales more than tripled. Copper exports rose by 17.6%. Agriculture exports rose by 5.3% YoY. On the import side, total imports rose by 4.7% YoY, lifted by the 30% rise in energy-related purchases. Consumer goods imports ticked up by a moderate 1.2% YoY, reflecting the softening private consumption dynamics amid limited job growth and slowing real wage gains. Capital goods imports contracted 9.5% YoY, a second consecutive annuak decline, amid declining transportation related imports and weaker demand for machinery. Although recent capital goods imports dynamics take place after a weaker investment start to the year, the updated investment pipeline and the ramp-up in procedural processing times suggests the medium term investment outlook remains constructive. On the other hand, energy imports rose by 51.9% YoY as the conflict in the Middle East maintains pressure on oil prices. The average value of energy imports during the March-June period was 43% higher than the January-February average as the middle east conflict boosted prices.
Our Take: As global energy prices retreat and metal prices remain elevated, the Chilean economy is set to continue with large surpluses ahead. Moreover, Chile stands to benefit of the rising structural demand for critical minerals, as has been the case this year. We expect a narrower current account deficit of 1.0% of GDP this year, supported by near record terms-of-trade. The CLP should remain volatile in the short term, sensitive to global risk, but the medium-term outlook remains constructive. Capital goods imports will be key in monitoring the realization of the constructive medium-term investment outlook.