ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in June, as expected

Argentina recorded a USD 2.2 billion trade surplus in June, a sharp improvement from the USD 0.9 billion surplus a year earlier and slightly below market expectations (USD 2.4 billion, central bank survey). On a rolling basis, the 12‑month trade surplus widened to USD 22.5 billion, up from USD 21.2 billion in May. The seasonally adjusted annualized trade balance fell to USD 28.6 billion, from USD 28.7 billion in the previous month.

Exports growth continued at solid pace in June. Total exports rose 30.9% yoy in 2Q26, accelerating from 17.2% in 1Q26. Agricultural exports (including processed products) increased by 20.1% yoy, above the 17.8% pace recorded in 1Q26. Exports of other industrial products surged 31.0% yoy, an acceleration from 23.7% in 1Q26. Sequential dynamics were supportive, with exports rising 44.1% qoq (saar) in June.

Imports fell in 2Q26 but recovered at the margin. Imports declined by 0.8% yoy in 2Q26, after falling 7.3% yoy in 1Q26. Capital goods and parts imports plunged 12.8% yoy, while consumer goods imports (including vehicles) fell 3.1% yoy. Intermediate goods imports rose by 7.4% yoy. However, on a sequential basis, imports expanded by 11.8% qoq (saar) in June, reversing the 20.1% drop in 1Q26, representing a positive signal for the domestic demand at the margin. 

Solid energy trade surplus. The rolling 12‑month energy surplus reached USD 10.0 billion in June, which was virtually unchanged from USD 10.1 billion in the previous month and above USD 7.8 billion in December 2025. Energy exports grew 85.5% yoy in 2Q26, also supported by higher oil prices, while oil imports rose by 33.6% yoy in the same period also affected by higher prices. 

Our take: We expect a trade surplus forecast of USD 24 billion for 2026. Export performance should remain robust, underpinned by a favorable outlook for soybean and corn harvests and firmer oil prices. A stronger‑than‑expected trade balance would provide room for the central bank to step up FX purchases, which have already reached USD 12.6bn year to date. July trade figures are scheduled for release on August 20.